Chelsea need to solve xG problem or risk sliding deeper down the table | OneFootball

Talk about a 180! Chelsea went from winning 8 in a row in all competitions to 4 games without a win, and a season that had exceeded all expectations has come crashing back down to earth.

Before the season it was very difficult to predict where this team would finish – with half the campaign played, it hasn’t got any easier. They could well dust themselves down and get back into a winning run – or they could easily lose to Bournemouth next week and continue their tailspin.

If you’re a gambler, uncertainty is what you want to help you get an edge on the bookies, and that’s just what we have right here. Any non gamstop casino guide will show you the Blues’ odds of making the top 4 have gone from very likely to quite uncertain.

As we’ve faded away, Arsenal have ground out some good results, Man City have started winning again, and Nottingham Forest and Newcastle still threaten too. We still cling on to fourth place, but there are four teams within four points of us.

Things can change dramatically in the next few weeks, and that means the odds can shift a lot too. It all depends on what you make of our recent form – was the winning run the outlier, or is our series of winless games the exception? You’ve got to drill down into the number and take your pick.

What looked like a run we could hope for 9 points from: Bournemouth, Wolves, Man City, West Ham; now looks far trickier. The injuries to defenders Wesley Fofana and Benoit Badiashile have seriously changed how we play, and our attack has suddenly gone cold.

Nicolas Jackson is not looking as confident as he did, Pedro Neto has one Premier League goal all season, Noni Madueke has recently been dropped for poor training performances. The stats point to a deeper problem than just bad luck In the 8 game winning streak we dropped below 2xG just once. In the 4 games without a win, we only reached 2xG once.

Meanwhile our xG against has climbed higher, despite some soft opposition.

We hate to say it, but if we were thinking purely in terms of making money, we’d be betting on this slump continuing for a while longer unless something changes dramatically in attack.

Still, this is a full week without a game, with an easy FA Cup match at the end of it. A perfect chance for Enzo Maresca to turn things around.