Derby County: Kayden Jackson can be a hit after his Ipswich Town exit if xG trend continues - View | OneFootball

The forward has been excellent since joining the Rams in the summer, and has quickly adjusted to life at Pride Park.

Derby County have returned to the Championship in impressive fashion, and sit 12th in the table as the league stops for the second international break of the season.

Their formidable home form, which has seen them win four of their five games at Pride Park so far in 2024/25, has eased any early fears of a relegation battle, and if they continue to pick up points on their own patch, it seems unlikely that they will return to League One.

The team's performances at home have been buoyed by their goal-scoring prowess, finding the back of the net nine times in DE24 in five matches, whereas on the road they have registered only three goals in four games.

Two of their nine goals at Pride Park have been scored by Kayden Jackson, who joined Derby in the summer as a free agent following the expiration of his contract at Ipswich Town at the end of last season.

The 30-year-old has also struck in the Carabao Cup at home, scoring the winner in the first round of the competition against Chesterfield in a Derbyshire derby back in August, and if he continues to follow one key trend, 2024/25 could be a good one for Jackson.

Jackson is outperforming his xG at the moment

There was limited expectation when the Rams signed the forward in July, with his goal-record in previous seasons not exactly the best.

Before joining Derby, Jackson had scored just 10 league goals in the last four seasons, registering a best of three in all but one of those campaigns. In the year before that run, he scored 11 times in League One, a number that he could reach once again if he continues to get into the positions that he has found himself in so far in 2024/25.

In his opening nine appearances in the Championship for the Rams, the 30-year-old has recorded an xG rate of 1.77, leading to his two goals, with both of those strikes coming in back-to-back home matches.

His first, against Middlesbrough, came through a classic breakaway after being gifted the ball by Isaiah Jones from a Boro corner. Jackson carried the ball 60 yards before rounding Senny Dieng and finishing into an empty net - a goal that registered an xG of 0.85.

His second goal came against Bristol City, firing a powerful strike past Max O'Leary from the left-side of the box. It gave Derby a 2-0 lead, before David Ozoh completed the victory in the final minute. The goal against the Robins had an xG rate of just 0.08, with the sheer pace of his shot beating O'Leary.

Jackson is close to passing his xG from last season already

The former Wrexham forward has been a key player for Paul Warne this season, a very different scenario to his final year at Ipswich where he was used mostly as a substitute.

He has already started eight times for the Rams, compared to in 2023/24 where he was in the starting XI in just nine matches across the entirety of the campaign.

It has allowed Jackson more opportunities to score, and he has just seven fewer shots in two months at Derby than he had for Ipswich last season. The trust that has been placed in the 30-year-old by Warne has been the key to his success, and he is starting to become a fan's favourite at Pride Park.

He registered an xG of just 2.63 in 29 appearances, a number that he will double in the same number of games if he continues to perform at his current level.

Jackson looks revitalised in black-and-white, and looks to have got back to his very best. Scoring more will only adhere supporters to him at a level that is greater than they already do. The xG evidence suggests he's ready to take any chances he gets to be amongst the goals.