Man City v Club Brugge: Back 37/1 Gvardiol Bet Builder in must-win clash | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Pep Guardiola and his team have to win

Manchester City have to beat Club Brugge to stay alive in the Champions League but the Belgians pose a threat, says Dave Tindall...

Listen to Football Only Bettor Champions League Matchday 8 special

Man City v Club BruggeWednesday 29 January, 20:00

City must win to avoid exit

Manchester City's domestic troubles have been reflected in Europe too.

The format of this season's Champions League left them plenty of scope for the odd wobble but with seven games gone they're staring at a shock exit if they don't win on Wednesday night.

City have managed just two victories from their seven games, drawing two and losing three. And they've left themselves looking down the barrel after a 4-2 away defeat to PSG last week.

At least their task is clear. The teams ranked ninth to 24th will contest a two-legged play-off to reach the last 16 and City are 25th with just eight points.

The team in 24th have 10 points meaning a draw is no good for Pep's men. Quite simply, anything other than a win and they're out.

Club Brugge on long unbeaten run

You have to scroll up the table rather than down to find Club Brugge. The Belgian champions start the final matchday in 20th place with 11 points after three wins, two draws and two defeats.

They've scored just six goals which is a negative but to balance that they've shipped just eight and only six teams have conceded fewer. Those low numbers are reflected in their latest Champions League result: a 0-0 home draw with Juventus.

On the road Club Brugge opened with a 1-0 win at Sturm Graz, lost 3-1 at AC Milan and drew 1-1 at Celtic. As well as denying Juventus, they also claimed a Premier League scalp earlier in the competition via a 1-0 home win over Aston Villa. The goal was freaky but the result deserved.

Since defeat in the San Siro back in October, Nicky Hayen's side haven't lost, a streak that extends to 20 matches. They've won 15 of those.

As for their qualification permutations, Club Brugge will definitely reach the playoffs by avoiding defeat. If they lose, their fate is then down to what happens with Benfica, PSG, Sporting Lisbon and Stuttgart as they would definitely drop below Man City on goal difference.

City coming back but still hard to trust

The exchange odds are extreme but are they based on old Manchester City? The City that brushed aside Club Brugge 4-1 (home) and 5-1 (away) in this competition back in 2021.

Man City are just 1.18 to get the win they need on Wednesday night, while Club Brugge are 19.0 and The Draw 9.0.

Five wins and a draw from their latest seven games suggest that City are getting back on track but there's still an element of distrust about them. Were we surprised that they capitulated 4-2 at PSG after going 2-0 up? Not really.

Both teams to score appeals

A starting point for a bet here is to give Club Brugge a goal.

Domestically, they're the Belgian Jupiler League's second top scorers (62) and average over two goals per game.

And in their last two away matches - against the division's top two - they scored five goals, drawing 2-2 at leaders Union St Gilloise and winning 3-0 at second-placed Anderlecht.

So let's take what is actually the underdog of the two options and have a wager on Both teams to Score at 2.08 on the exchange.

I prefer that to backing a City win and BTTS, a 6/4 shot, given the underlying suspicions still surrounding Pep's side.

Club Brugge have shown they can soak up pressure and hit on the break and that makes them dangerous. Perhaps not good enough to win or even draw but certainly capable of finding holes in that exposed City midfield area and getting a goal at some point.

Get with Gvardiol

Erling Haaland has returned to his usual numbers with six in his last six. And he has six goals in this tournament so far. The 4/9 anytime is short though.

The value in terms of a goalscorer bet has to be Josko Gvardiol at 11/2.

He's City's third top scorer this season and netted in the 3-1 win over Chelsea at the weekend in one of his numerous bombs forward down the left.

And a reminder that in the previous campaign Gvardiol had a run across April and May when he scored five times in seven games.

In-form Nilsson can add to Bet Builder

As well as playing Gvardiol in a single, I'll also make the Croatian part of an ambitious Bet Builder.

The second leg is a Club Brugge player, striker Gustaf Nilsson.

The Swede has five goals in his last six games. They include goals in those away matches against Union St Gilloise and Anderlecht while he netted from the spot in Club Brugge's draw with Kortrijk at the weekend.

Combinbing Gvardiol and Nilsson in a goalscoring Bet Builder pays a chunky 37/1.

Recommended bets

1pt - Back Both teams to Score @ 2.08 0.5pts - Back Josko Gvardiol to Score @ 11/2 0.5pts - Back Josko Gvardiol and Gustaf Nilsson to Score on Bet Builder @ 37/1

Staked: 40pts

Returned: 27.95pts

P/L: -12.05pts

Previous:2023/2024 P/L: -£20.792022/2023 P/L: +£16.792021/2022 P/L: +£8.692020/2021 P/L: +£3.06

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