MN: Low goal return and underperforming xG – numbers highlight Milan’s striker problem | OneFootball

A lot of topics within football have layers of nuance, but sometimes it is as simple as a team lacking a potent goal scorer, and that applies to AC Milan.

As MilanNews write, against Como it was a defender (Theo Hernandez) and a winger who hadn’t scored in the league for two months (Rafael Leao) who engineered the comeback. Looking at the numbers – and the Cagliari game before – you can see how a finisher is lacking.

The top scorers in Serie A for Milan after 20 games are Alvaro Morata, Christian Pulisic and Tijjani Reijnders with five goals apiece. The American and the Dutchman are doing well given their positions, but the Spaniard – who arrived to replace Olivier Giroud – should be on more.

A comparison with the top league scorers for other Serie A club shows Atalanta’s Mateo Retegui on 13 goals, Fiorentina’s Moise Kean on 11, Inter’s Marcus Thuram on 12 and Napoli’s Romelu Lukaku on 7. Even Empoli’s Simone Esponsito (8) and Udinese Lorenzo Lucca (7) have more.

Only Monza and Parma have their top scorer with fewer goals than Milan’s (4), while Cagliari, Torino and Venezia are at the same level as the Rossoneri, with the Granata however having the alibi of the serious injury to Duvan Zapata.

Another key to understanding the issue is the xG (Expected Goals, i.e. the quality of chances created) ranking compared to the goals actually scored. According to Understat, Milan have an xG of 35.23, third in the league behind only Inter and Atalanta.

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However, the actual goals scored stands at 29, therefore 6.23 less than it should be. Only Lecce (6.71) and Cagliari (9.53) have done worse. The shot-to-goal ration is also quite indicative, with Sergio Conceicao’s side on 7.4%.

Looking more at individuals, Tammy Abraham’s personal xG in Serie A stands at 7 while the actual goals total is 2. Games like Saturday where the Englishman missed a couple of big chances can be the difference between wins and draws.

Is Marcus Rashford the right man, then? This season’s data shows an xG of 1.94 in the Premier League for the Manchester United man against 4 goals actually scored. These are low numbers, but it shows he has taken the few chances he has had.