Newcastle United v Nottingham Forest: Oppose hosts in top-level clash | OneFootball

English Premier League

Nottingham Forest striker Chris Wood is having an incredible season

Nottingham Forest are still on track for an extraordinary Champions League qualification, and Kevin Hatchard believes they can at least avoid defeat at Newcastle this weekend...

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Newcastle United v Nottingham ForestSunday 23 February, 14:00Live on Sky Sports

Magpies in danger of blowing UCL push

Even though traditional big hitters like Manchester United and Tottenham are in turmoil, and there are almost certainly five Champions League spots up for grabs instead of the usual four, the race for golden tickets to European football's VIP club is fiercer than ever.

Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest and Fulham are all defying expectations, while Manchester City and Chelsea and underperforming, but their squads are stacked with talent. Aston Villa have struggled to balance their current UCL campaign with their bid to make next season's competition, but they are still in the mix.

Newcastle tasted Champions League excitement last term, but then missed out on Europe entirely. Magpies' boss Eddie Howe has once again reached the League Cup final, but a dip in Premier League form has been alarming. Newcastle have lost three of their last four league matches, including a 4-1 hammering at home to Bournemouth and a 4-0 demolition at Manchester City. As Howe admits, when Newcastle aren't quite at the top level in terms of effort and energy, their game takes a big hit.

Howe has called for a more vibrant display this weekend, but injuries have taken their toll, and there are key players missing this weekend. Centre-back Sven Botman has a knee problem, while influential Brazilian midfielder Joelinton is still sidelined. The absence of both decreases the stability of the side, and Newcastle have managed just eight clean sheets in 25 Premier League games.

Forest facing major tests of top-five credentials

With a trip to Newcastle and a home game against title-chasing Arsenal on the horizon, Nottingham Forest are about to teach us a lot about whether they can truly be trusted as Champions League qualifiers. Coach Nuno has done a sensational job, and Forest's unashamed commitment to contain-and-counter has reaped rewards.

There have been a couple of tough away results recently. First the Tricky Trees were eviscerated in a 5-0 hammering at Bournemouth, and last week they were outplayed in a 2-1 loss at Fulham.

That said, Forest have only lost six times in the league all season, and remarkably they have racked up seven away wins in this top-flight season. That includes an historic 1-0 win at Anfield against Liverpool.

Chris Wood scored a fine individual goal at Fulham last weekend, and he's having the season of his life. The New Zealand international has now scored 24 goals in 32 games for club and country this term, and he has netted a remarkable 18 Premier League goals. Even opposing manager Eddie Howe has been moved to laud the former Burnley man's campaign.

Forest almost have a clean bill of health. Striker Taiwo Awoniyi is the only major injury doubt.

Hosts too short at odds-on

Newcastle have only won four of their last 10 home games in the Premier League, and they are missing key players in defence and midfield. Reaching the League Cup final was a big effort, and looking ahead to that showpiece is perhaps something of a distraction. Star striker Alexander Isak has gone four games without a goal - an unremarkable sequence for most players, but a surprising drought by the Swede's standards.

Forest have quality and pace on the counter, and in Wood they have a player in the form of his career. They are a tough team to knock over, and they know a point would be a good result here. It's also worth noting that Forest won this fixture 3-1 in the Premier League last season.

Also, when trawling through the Match Stat Specials selections I was taken by the idea of backing each goalkeeper to make a save in each half at 6/4 on the Sportsbook. Both teams are averaging 4.6 shots on target per game, so we just need a nice even spread across the two halves. Martin Dubravka has made at least two saves in each of his last six Premier League starts, while Forest's Matz Sels had to make a staggering eight saves in defeat at Fulham, and has made two stops or more in 13 of his last 15 top-flight matches.