Opta Predicts Crystal Palace v Man City: Back Eze to score in 31/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

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It's time for one of the biggest occasions in the domestic football calendar as Crystal Palace and Manchester City go head to head in the FA Cup final at Wembley.

Below, we have gone through the data and looked to highlight the best value for Saturday's huge clash.

Value is with Crystal Palace

Given the chasm between these teams in terms of the win/draw/win prices, it makes sense from a value perspective to find angles as to how we can get against favourites Manchester City, who are 8/11 to win the FA Cup final inside regulation time.

It's important to start this by saying Manchester City are probably the likelier winners, as the price suggests. They come into this one in their best form of the season, having won seven of their last nine matches in all competitions.

City are eight places and 15 points above Crystal Palace in the Premier League, while they are also nine positions above City in the Opta Power Rankings and won this match in 52.5% of simulations by the Opta supercomputer.

But don't let any of that put you off chasing the best value here. It is worth remembering that Manchester City have won just seven of their last 21 matches away from the Etihad Stadium in all competitions this season, with their last match being a 0-0 Premier League draw on the road against bottom-of-the-table Southampton.

When the pressure has been on them, meanwhile, you can hardly say they have been sparkling. The mid-season collapse that City endured saw them win just one match in 13 in all competitions. City earned just five points in nine Premier League games during that sequence, having been one point clear at the top of the table pre-collapse and trailing leaders Liverpool by 14 points in seventh nine games later.

City were also convincingly beaten 6-3 on aggregate by Real Madrid across their two biggest games of the season so far in the Champions League play-off round. While Crystal Palace obviously represent a different level of opposition, they were City's highest-stakes games so far this season.

City's record at Wembley under Pep Guardiola also suggests there are no foregone conclusions when they play there. Since Guardiola took over, City have played 20 games at Wembley as a neutral venue - at least four more than any other club in that time - but won just half of those, losing six and drawing four inside 90 minutes.

Manchester City, meanwhile, have a 60% win ratio against Crystal Palace in the Premier League, which suggests some level of superiority over them but by no means constitutes a historic walkover.

It is important to apply perspective to City's apparent success in that metric, as that win percentage in fact makes Palace the 10th-best performing club against City of those currently in the top flight.

Palace are absolutely capable of being competitive against their fancied opposition at Wembley, having done so regularly in the Premier League in recent years.

In six of the last eight seasons, Manchester City have failed to win one of their two league games against Palace, including in this campaign. Crystal Palace drew 2-2 at home to Manchester City in December, twice taking the lead before being pegged back by Erling Haaland and Rico Lewis respectively. City then won the reverse fixture in April 5-2 but were two goals behind Palace at the half-hour mark of that game.

City are also not immune to suffering surprising results despite often having much more of the play, as could happen again at Wembley.

Guardiola's side come into the FA Cup final on the back of that goalless draw at Southampton where, according to the recorded momentum, only one side were realistically going to win it.

Palace will be untroubled that City are likely to have most of the play - Guardiola's men have the highest average possession figure in the Premier League (61.7%) - given that Oliver Glasner's team have seen the fourth-lowest amount of the ball in the division, averaging just 42.9%.

In doing so, Palace have still avoided defeat in eight of their 13 matches against teams currently in the Premier League's top seven in the league (W1 D7 L5). As a result, the 1/1 available for Crystal Palace double chance looks appealing, while the 11/4 for them to force a draw is also worth a look and 21/10 for them to lift the trophy is also long enough to be of interest.

Don't expect a Manchester City walkover

Given the magnitude of what is at stake, it is perhaps unsurprising that FA Cup finals do not tend to be runaway affairs. Just two of the last 20 FA Cup finals have been separated by more than one goal, while six of those showpiece matches went to extra time.

So, despite City winning by a three-goal margin when the two sides previously met, the handicap markets look like they could be worth a miss.

There have been 11 goals in the two meetings between Manchester City and Crystal Palace this season and, interestingly, over 2.5 goals has landed in 12 of the last 21 FA Cup finals. While over 2.5 goals looks a little skinny to get behind at 8/11, the jump to 17/10 for over 3.5 goals is one that makes it a decent bet.

Similarly, BTTS is understandably short at 13/20 given the nature of the City and Palace's games so far this season. BTTS has also landed in seven of the last 12 FA Cup finals, though both teams to score twice is more appealing - having landed in both of the previous meetings between these sides - at 4/1.

Eze's time to shine

From a Crystal Palace perspective, there is one man to look towards when it comes to goal contributions. The majority of Palace's attacks go through Eberechi Eze and the England international has played a part in 148 shot-ending open-play sequences for the club so far in the Premier League this season - 22 more than any other Palace player.

Eze ranks 23rd in the Premier League for open-play involvements in shot-ending sequences despite Palace currently sitting in the bottom half. Removing all current top-half players, only Alex Iwobi and Matheus Cunha are above Eze in that statistical category.

Even more impressively, of players to have played over 1,000 minutes so far in the Premier League, only Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer, Kevin De Bruyne, Mohamed Salah and Bruno Fernandes rank above Eze for combined shots and chances created per 90 minutes (5.6).

He also averages 3.6 shots per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season - the sixth-most - and ranks third for shots attempted outside of the penalty area (57). He is 5/6 to have three or more shots here.

Eze scored the only two goals of the game in Crystal Palace's 2-0 victory over Tottenham Hotspur at the weekend, marking the first time in his career he has scored in three straight league matches.

Including his goal against Aston Villa in the FA Cup semi-final, Eze has now scored in four straight games and he has netted seven of his 12 goals this season in his last nine appearances. He is 3/1 to score on Saturday, while a goal or assist is priced at 9/5.

From a City perspective, Kevin De Bruyne is the way to go for goal contributions. The Belgian has provided 18 assists in the FA Cup since making his Manchester City debut in 2015, which is more than any player in the last 25 years.

Including the 10 goals he has scored in the competition, De Bruyne ranks first for goal contributions (28) in the FA Cup during his time at Manchester City and also tops the charts for chances created (85). He is 7/4 to provide an assist in what looks set to be an entertaining final at Wembley.