Opta Predicts Liverpool v Tottenham Tips: Back Reds to seal title in 38/1 Bet Builder on Sunday | OneFootball

English Premier League

Opta predicts Liverpool will win the Premier League on Sunday in 38/1 bet builder

Opta provide the key stats for Sunday's big Premier League match at Anfield and recommend a bet builder that will see Liverpool seal their first title for five years against Tottenham...

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Without doubt, the Premier League game of the weekend comes from Anfield with the potential for new champions to be crowned.

Let's have a look at whether or not that will happen, as well as trying to find some value in the betting markets.

Liverpool to start title party in style

The equation for Liverpool is simple: take at least a point at home to Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday and the Reds will be the new Premier League champions with four games to spare.

To provide an idea as to the context behind how impressive Liverpool's achievement could be, there have only ever been three teams to have won the Premier League with five or more games left in the season - and this would be the most convincing triumph since the Reds claimed their last league title in 2019/20, a race they ultimately won by 18 points.

Looking ahead to Spurs and the statistics suggest that there is every chance of a title party at Anfield.

The 1-0 victory over Leicester City on Easter Sunday, while not as one-sided in terms of the scoreline as many expected, was Liverpool's 10th win in their last 14 league games. The Reds have also lost just one of their last 29 games in the Premier League.

Arne Slot, meanwhile, has averaged 2.39 points per game so far in the Premier League during his debut year in charge - for context, Jurgen Klopp departed Anfield with an average of 2.11 points per game.

If Tottenham are to get anything from this match, they will have to snap Liverpool's six-match home winning streak in the league, while the hosts are also unbeaten in their last 14 top-flight games on their own patch. Liverpool have picked up at least five more points (41) at Anfield this season than any other Premier League team have at home.

The Reds also come into this fixture having won the expected goals (xG) battle in each of their last nine league games. They have, in fact, won the xG battle in 30 of their 33 league contests this season, suggesting that they are consistently producing better opportunities than their opposition.

Given the above, alongside the potential carrot for the home side, it is no surprise that Liverpool are as short as 2/9 to get what would be a decisive victory in what has become the Premier League title procession. Unsurprisingly, the Opta supercomputer has Liverpool pegged as title winners with 100% certainty.

OK, so that's where Liverpool are at, but what about Spurs? While they are safe from relegation, the visitors are 16th in the table and have lost five of their last seven league games - their only victory in that time came at home to bottom-of-the-table Southampton earlier this month.

They have lost 10 of their 11 league games against teams currently in the Premier League's top six, including the 6-3 horror show against Liverpool at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in December. That defeat means that it is just two victories in Spurs' last 24 meetings with the Reds, having drawn six and lost 16.

To illustrate the current chasm between these teams, the 42 points that Spurs trail Liverpool by coming into this match are the second-highest number of points they have ever been behind a team they are facing in Premier League history. They were 43 behind Arsenal when they met at White Hart Lane in April 2004, with the Gunners securing the title against them that day.

The only chance for any success whatsoever for Ange Postecoglou's side comes in the Europa League, where they face Bodo/Glimt in the semi-finals with the first leg following their trip to Anfield.

So, all in all, not great. Spurs have also been trailing at the break in 14 of their 33 league games so far this season - only the relegated pair of Southampton and Leicester have trailed in more.

So, in the interests of trying to combat Liverpool's prohibitively-short win/draw/win price with some value, the hosts are also 4/7 to win the first-half. The 8/11 available for Liverpool/Liverpool in the half-time/full-time is also worth a look.

Goals seem a certainty at Anfield

Goal markets are probably an easier way to find value in this one considering the chaotic energy that has followed Spurs for the entire season.

The visitors come into this match as the Premier League's top scorers from outside the top five positions, having netted 61 goals. Unfortunately for them, though, they have also conceded the seventh-most goals (51).

When considering the quality of chances they both create and face, the dichotomy is even more striking. Spurs rank sixth for xG, having generated 55.19 over the course of the season - Liverpool are top on 73.37 for context. But Postecoglou's side also have the fifth-worst xG against (54.25).

What this means is that, as a rule, you can expect plenty of action at both ends during Spurs matches, as played out in Liverpool's 6-3 romp in the reverse fixture. The 5.63 xG generated by Liverpool during that match is the highest total of any Premier League team in a match all season.

Of the 20 highest xG totals in individual matches this season, meanwhile, four belong to Liverpool, which doesn't spell great news for a creaky visiting backline. While the -1 handicap looks a little skinny to get behind in a single at 4/7, though worth looking at for a bet builder, the -2 is eminently backable at 17/10.

Thinking more simply about goals, it's unsurprising that Spurs' games have had the highest average in the Premier League (3.39 per game). Liverpool's games, meanwhile, are equal-third, with an average of 3.21 goals in each of their league matches. With that in mind, it is perhaps understandable that over 3.5 goals is as short as 4/5.

Instead, it's worth looking at the both teams to score 8/13 and both teams to score twice 7/2 markets. The latter came in during the reverse fixture and has landed in a further four league games each for Spurs and Liverpool since.

Trent Alexander-Arnold to keep doing TAA things

After his goalscoring return from the bench against Leicester on Easter Sunday, Trent Alexander-Arnold is one to look at in the individual markets. As Liverpool's premier right-back, you would expect him to be back in from the start at Anfield and that means one thing: potential assists.

Alexander-Arnold ranks first among the Liverpool squad for successful open-play crosses (23), successful crosses including corners and free kicks (39) and passes played into the opposition penalty area (217).

Over the course of this season, meanwhile, 37% of his open-play touches are on the right-hand side of the pitch in the opposition's half. At 9/5, he looks decent value to record his seventh assist in the league this season.

For shots on target, though, Alexander-Arnold is worth taking on with Dejan Kulusevski in a Build Ups bet, with both players being the same price for one or more. Alexander-Arnold has registered just eight shots on target all season compared to the Swede's 18, while the Spurs man also had three attempts on goal in the reverse. At 6/4, Kulusevski is worth backing for at least one effort on target at Anfield.

In terms of cards, Liverpool (57) and Tottenham Hotspur (60) have picked up the fourth- and sixth-fewest number of bookings in the Premier League this season. With referee Tom Bramall having averaged 3.3 yellow cards per game across all competitions this season, it makes sense to go low here. Under 3.5 cards is available at 5/6.

Recommended bets

Back Liverpool -1, Both teams to score twice, Kulusevski to have SOT, Alexander-Arnold assist @ 38/1