Saturday League One and League Two Tips: Back 90 Minute Guarantee draw in 10/1 treble | OneFootball

Michael Duff's Huddersfield head into the Yorkshire derby with four straight losses

Alan Dudman has tipped nine single winners from his last 12 EFL selections and he has two weekend multiples...

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League One

Leg 1: Wrexham v Northampton Town, Saturday 15:00: Back BTTS 'No' @ 9/10

Wrexham's impressive defensive record at home stands us in good stead to play on the BTTS 'No' market here, and it's a bet that has already come up trumps for the column this term with their 3-0 beating of Shrewsbury last month. They gave up just 0.59xG in that game and kept the Shrews to very few chances - indeed no 'big chances' were created.

It's no four clean sheets for Phil Parkinson's side with two at home and they have to bounce back after a loss in midweek and a 0-0 at Orient last Saturday - but both of those results offers food for thought in playing the Under 2.5 Goals or Under 1.5 Goals.

Northampton have lost four of their last five away Football League games against Wrexham (W1), though did win 1-0 on their last visit to the Racecourse Ground in February 2006 and have lost each of their last two league games and will be looking to avoid losing three in succession for the first time since September 2023.

The Cobblers have played well on the road with a win at Huddersfield and a point at Barnsley - but it's hard to get away from such a strong home defence.

KEY OPTA STAT: Wrexham are the only side with a 100% home win rate remaining in League One this season. It's the Red Dragons' longest home winning run from the start of a Football League season since 1975-76, when they won their first six.

Leg 2: Lincoln City v Leyton Orient, Saturday 15:00: Back Lincoln @ 5/4

Orient have won just two of their last nine league games (D2 L5), though both of those victories have come on their travels this season (4-1 vs Stockport County & 1-0 vs Reading), and while those were two fine results after a stuttering start, I am looking to Lincoln at 23/20 - and that's not a bad price.

Lincoln scuppered the Blackpool bet in midweek with a 1-1 at Bloomfield Road with a very late goal in stoppage time - although more fool me for not playing on the 90 minutes payout with Steve Bruce's side.

The hosts have drawn three of their last four, all four games hitting the Under 2.5 Goals mark.

Michael Skubala's team played terrifically well in the second-half on Tuesday against Blackpool's ball retention and dominance, and the head coach reflected on his side's progress and how they've improved since last year.

The Londoners have won just one of their last six away Football League games against Lincoln City (D3 L2), a 4-3 victory at Sincil Bank in October 2004, and while they have improved after a shaky start themselves, backing the hosts is the way to go here.

KEY OPTA STAT: Lincoln City are unbeaten across their last five Football League games against Leyton Orient (W2 D3), winning both matches 1-0 between the two sides last season.

Leg 3: Huddersfield v Barnsley, Saturday 12:30: Back The Draw @ 15/8 with 90 mins payout

A big Yorkshire set-to on Saturday for the early League One game live on Sky and in truth, it's a difficult to make a case for either here for the Michael Duff derby.

Duff's team are failing to live up to their pre-season billing and find themselves down in 15th in the table, while Barnsley are still to convince me despite their 15 points.

I'm tapping into Barnsley's three draws this term - two of late both 2-2. Darrell Clarke played four centre-backs in a 4-4-2 in midweek against midweek and they were far too slow on the ball despite rallying twice to comeback in the game.

Huddersfield have lost four straight games and one has to wonder how long Duff has in the job - he can ill afford another two losses. With that in mind, the hosts might be a bit tentative here. Maybe something isn't quite right with the Terriers, highlighted by the fact Herbie Kane hasn't featured recently with Duff criticising the shape he was in from pre-season.

With the 90 minute payout we can cancel out any late goal, and with this a game Duff dare not lose, the draw also boosts the treble price.

League Two

Leg 1: Salford City v AFC Wimbledon, Saturday 15:00: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/20

Salford's worrying form continued on Tuesday at Newport - losing 3-1 at Rodney Parade in another lacklustre performance.

With Salford's owners trigger happy, one has to wonder how long Karl Robinson has got in the job and they created very little in midweek with a poor output of just 0.49xG despite a lot of pointless possession play. They've scored just five goals all season - the second fewest in the league.

That might seem an odd starting point for an Over 2.5 Goals bet, even more puzzling perhaps with that pick as Wimbledon themselves have earned three Under 2.5 games on the road, but sometimes it's good to go against the market, even more so here considering Robinson said his team have a "soft underbelly" and has started to criticise.

Johnnie Jackson should go for the win here as Salford City have won just one of their previous four EFL games against AFC Wimbledon (D2 L1), a 3-2 victory in April 2023.

KEY OPTA STAT: AFC Wimbledon have lost four of their last six EFL games against sides from Greater Manchester (W1 D1), as many defeats as in their prior 21 such matches beforehand.

Leg 2: Chesterfield v Walsall, Saturday 15:00: Back BTTS 'Yes' @ 4/6

Five of Chesterfield's games this season have landed the BTTS 'Yes' bet for backers this season, while Walsall conceded an astonishing six against Fleetwood in midweek in a 2-6 loss. No one saw that coming, and a result that denied us another winning treble.

Previously Walsall had won 4-0, so that's some turnaround, but they are a team that score goals

"It was a crazy second half from our perspective and it sucked the life out of us," said Matt Sadler on Tuesday, and I tend to draw a line on some of the midweek games as the quick turnaround can often produce strange results.

No side in League Two this season have scored more goals than Walsall (17), whilst the Saddlers also rank top in the division for expected goals (18.4) and shots attempted (131), so the BTTS bet looks a possible at 4/6.

KEY OPTA STAT: Chesterfield have lost just one of their last six home league games against Walsall (W3 D2), scoring at least once in each of those matches.

Fleetwood earned the prize for goals on Tuesday with the previously mentioned 2-6 at Walsall - and while dangerous to go with recency bias, it's now three from four now on the BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals.

Bromley conceded and scored early in their recent Chesterfield match and have conceded three on the road from four games - including three at Bradford and have conceded chances worth 16.4 expected goals against in League Two this season, the most of any side in the competition.

Fleetwood Town are unbeaten across their last five home league games (W3 D2), they last enjoyed a longer run on home soil between February and April 2023 (six matches), and have scored 13 in their last four, so are well worth a punt for goals again.

KEY OPTA STAT: Despite being unbeaten on home soil in League Two this campaign, only Tranmere Rovers have scored fewer such goals than Fleetwood Town (3). Equally, only Barrow and Tranmere Rovers have conceded fewer goals at home than the Cod Army (2).

Recommended bets

You can back Alan's League One treble @ 11/1 0.5pt

You can back Alan's League Two treble @ 5/1 0.5pt

Multiples P and L 2024-25

+6.25