AZ Alkmaar a Live Dog in Europa League Playoffs? | OneFootball

AZ Alkmaar v. Galatasaray

Indeed, “the boys are back in town” (this is a song played at AZ’s AFAS Stadion) and they’ll be looking to do as much damage in the first leg as possible, in hopes of taking a lead with them to Turkiye for the second leg.

The first leg is lined as a pick ’em in the Asian Handicap market and the total is set at 3.25.

In terms of the Asian Handicap market, I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off taking the over in this match. AZ are no strangers to a high-scoring affair, and Galatasaray themselves tend to see overs cashing in the vast majority of their European fixtures. However, it’s those wild and crazy nights we’ve all witnessed with Galatasaray that lead me to believe that many have been fooled into to thinking the side is better than they are.

Galatasray: Don’t Believe the Hype

Most American soccer bettors are not regularly watching the Turkish league, so they tend to only see Galatasaray in European competition, and again, when they see Galatasaray, it’s usually in a high-scoring match where Galatasaray score some good goals and provide great entertainment. Then these viewers see the backs of the Galatasaray jerseys and find themselves saying over and over, “oh, I know that guy.” Galatasaray are chock-full of past-his-prime players with some serious name recognition due to heights they’d reached previously with bigger clubs. No disrespect, of course, to some of their players who are very much in their prime (Victor Osimhen, here’s to you) but the name recognition of cast-offs from Europe’s big five leagues is plentiful: Dries Mertens, Mauro Icardi, Davinson Sanchez, Mario Lemina, and most recently, Alvaro Morata.

Add to this the fact that Galatasaray are Turkish champions, and suddenly many bettors are left believing that the team are better than they actually are. In truth, Galatasaray are an average European side. As the last handful of soccer seasons suggests, the Europa League quarter-finals is about their level. They may win a round or two of knockouts depending on the season, but that’s typically about it. They certainly aren’t at a level that will strike fear into the hearts of AZ supporters.

Our Take on AZ

While AZ sit 4th in the Eredivisie table, and the Turkish champs, Galatasaray, continue to occupy top spot in Turkiye, the Dutch league is far more competitive, and AZ have impressed throughout the season both domestically and in Europe. With only two losses in their last ten matches across all competitions, AZ come into this tie in excellent form and have taken some impressive scalps in that run. When they traveled to Dutch champions, PSV Eindhoven, they shared the points, and arguably started PSV’s current slide in the Eredivisie. AZ beat Roma in the Europa league during this run as well, and they knocked Ajax out of the Dutch cup. The same Ajax team that beat Galatasaray two weeks ago!

So What Does This Mean?

Because of all of this, there is huge value in the qualification market, where AZ are absolutely a live dog. At +175 to qualify to next round, they are being massively disrespected.

Obviously, it’s likeliest that AZ do better in their home leg, but due to the market pricing, the value on playing AZ to qualify is too good to pass up. So rather than play this first leg individually, I’ll take AZ in the qualification market. We’re getting a shorter price on AZ to win their home leg, but that requires them to win it. By taking them to qualify, we’re not only getting a longer price, we’re giving AZ the entirety of the tie to make it happen. We don’t have to pick which leg they win, we don’t have to worry about one of the legs being a draw, we get the possibility of extra time, and we get penalties on our side as well.

The market is suggesting that Galatasaray are a significantly better side than AZ, and that’s simply not the case. These teams are much closer to each other than the market suggests, and there’s even a case to be made that AZ are better than the Turkish champs. And so I’ll fade the narrative that Galatasaray are the better side, and I’ll take AZ to qualify for the round of 16.

The Soccer Sharps Take: AZ Alkmaar to Qualify (+175)

For more analysis about this matchup, and for more Europa League and Champions League betting picks, check out The Soccer Sharps podcast on The Hooligan Soccer Network.

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