Bayern Munich v Bayer Leverkusen: German giants to keep it tight | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Xabi Alonso has never lost to Bayern Munich as a coach

It's an almighty clash of the titans in Germany, as the Bundesliga's top two fight for a place in the Champions League quarter-finals. Our Bundesliga columnist Kevin Hatchard anticipates a cagey affair.

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Bayern Munich v Bayer LeverkusenWednesday 05 March, 20:00Live on Discovery+

Bayern top of the league, but are they best in Germany?

Bayern Munich under Vincent Kompany have been something of a puzzle this season. They are eight points clear at the top of the Bundesliga, with the best attacking and defensive statistics in the division, and they are on course for a record number of goals. They have only lost once in the league this season, and on home soil they are unbeaten in the top division.

However, they have failed to beat Leverkusen in three meetings this term, and in the Champions League they have suffered a number of alarming defeats. They were edged out 1-0 at Aston Villa, demolished 4-1 by Barcelona and most worryingly of all they were hammered 3-0 at Feyenoord.

There is no doubting Bayern's individual quality. Former Crystal Palace winger Michael Olise has delivered eight goals and seven assists in the league alone in a stellar first season, Joshua Kimmich has been back to his best as a midfield orchestrator, and Harry Kane has been rattling along at a goal a game in all competitions. Jamal Musiala is the jewel in the crown, and the 22-year-old just needs one more goal to break his personal best of 16 in one season.

Kompany's appointment confused many who made the mistake of conflating it with Burnley's relegation from the Premier League under the Belgian, but much of that analysis missed an important point. Bayern still have an enduring fondness and respect for the work of Pep Guardiola, who won three league titles as Bayern boss and played scintillating, dominant football. As Guardiola's former captain at City, Kompany's tactics and approach are similar, and players have been won over by his man-management.

Dayot Upamecano could return at centre-back after he was rested for Friday night's 3-1 comeback win at Stuttgart. Kimmich hopes to return from injury, after he missed out on a start for the first time this season. His fellow midfielder Aleks Pavlovic has been struggling with a heavy cold.

Leverkusen boosted by stellar display

After a 4-1 win at third-placed Eintracht Frankfurt kept his team in the title race, Bayer Leverkusen boss Xabi Alonso declared the first half display the best of his team's season. Die Werkself demolished a good side on their own patch, with Granit Xhaka particularly impressive in midfield.

That win means that Leverkusen have still lost just one game against German opposition since the start of last season, and they haven't lost a domestic away match since May 2023. Last term, they became the first team in German football history to do an unbeaten league and cup double.

Since taking charge of Bayer, Alonso has faced Bayern Munich six times, and he has never lost. That's Bayer's longest ever unbeaten run against the Rekordmeister, and the fear of facing the Bavarians has certainly dissipated. This season, Leverkusen were outplayed in the league in Munich but held on for a 1-1 draw, they won 1-0 at the Allianz Arena in the DFB Pokal after an early red card for Manuel Neuer, and in the Bundesliga at the BayArena they missed a host of chances in a goalless draw.

Alonso tends to go for the unorthodox and unusual against Bayern. He picked a strikerless system in the 0-0 draw, leaving Victor Boniface on the bench and bringing Patrik Schick on very late in the piece. It's possible he'll do that again, with Amine Adli or Nathan Tella deployed as speedy pressing machines in attack.

One player that almost certainly will start is star man Florian Wirtz. The German international has delivered nine goals and ten assists in the league, and has scored a further six in the Champions League. Bayern would dearly love to sign him in the summer, but there is talk that the 21-year-old will do at least one more year under the Bayer cross.

Martin Terrier and Jeanuel Belocian are long-term injury absentees, with influential centre-back Edmond Tapsoba a doubt for the game.

Unders the value play

I was pleasantly surprised to see Under 2.5 Goals trading at 6/5 here, as the three meetings between the sides this term have all stayed under that line. Xabi Alonso has been very good at negating Bayern's strengths in these games, and to concede just one goal against the Bavarians over 270 minutes this term is pretty extraordinary.

Bayern know they can't play their all-action, high risk attacking football, as Bayer can shred them with their pace on the counter, so I imagine there'll be a degree of caution here.

Tella all your friends about this bet

There are never any guarantees when it comes to Xabi Alonso's selections against Bayern, but he tends to pick Nathan Tella because his speed causes problems behind Bayern's high defensive line, and he presses like a demon.

Tella scored the winner in Munich in the Pokal tie, and had an effort cleared off the line in the recent league meeting. The former Burnley speedster is a hefty 13/10 just to hit the target here, so if he's in the starting XI, pull the trigger.

Now read Champions League: Liverpool best value as Opta predicts every team's chances

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