Chelsea, Aston Villa and Newcastle are so unlucky – Very unusual circumstances | OneFootball

The Champions League battle is racing to its conclusion.

Manchester City, Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa, Newcastle United and Chelsea, fighting it out.

It feels like this Champions League qualifying race has been going on most of the season.

Though in reality I am guessing it is ‘only’ months.

The thing is though, the intensity of all it has been head spinning.

So many twists and turns week after week AND still no conclusion to it.

Even though only six days to go until the conclusion of the Premier League season and we still don’t know the identity of three of the clubs that will end up in the Champions League.

This is how the Premier League table looks on Monday 19 May 2025:

I think you have to accept that Aston Villa, Chelsea and Newcastle United are especially unlucky.

It is very unusual circumstances this Premier League season…

This is what has happened these past five seasons, the final top six each year.

2019/20 Premier League top six

2020/21 Premier League top six

2021/22 Premier League top six

2022/23 Premier League top six

2023/24 Premier League top six

As to can see, when it came to finish top five, this is how many points you needed to guarantee you would finish above sixth:

2019/20: 60 points

2020/21: 66 points

2021/22: 59 points

2022/23: 63 points

2023/24: 64 points

This is what I mean about how unlucky the likes of Newcastle United, Aston Villa and Chelsea have been this season. All of these past five seasons, 66 points would have guaranteed Premier League top five.

However, there is actually every chance that we could now see one of the clubs even getting 69 points and still failing to get Premier League top five AND failing to get a Champions League place!

It has been surely the most competitive ever season in terms of how many clubs competing for places third to fifth in the Premier League. As it stands, only one point separating five teams with only six days until the season ends.

If Man City draw with Bournemouth on Tuesday night, it would be four clubs on 66 points and then Forest one behind them all going into the final day.

The big divide this season is that we have ended up with seven clubs at the top end and then a ten points gap and more to eighth and the rest.

Just as Man U and Tottenham are lucky this season that you don’t need 40 points to ensure safety, a cruel twist at the other end if a team is going to miss out on Champions League and top five in the Premier League despite accumulating 69 points…

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