Did Man City’s Real Madrid defeat hand Guardiola a possible blueprint to nullify Liverpool? | OneFootball

On the other end, Man City are looking to secure a top-four finish despite their poor season so far. The Citizens currently sit fourth, one point clear of Bournemouth and Chelsea.

In the reverse fixture this season Arne Slot got the better of Pep Guardiola, as Liverpool beat Man City 2-0 at Anfield. But Guardiola’s side on the day was a very different one to what we are used to seeing. Rico Lewis and Matheus Nunes started on the wings, while Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva were a midfield pairing.

This was clearly an attempt to be more defensively resolute, opting for more defensive minded wide players instead of Jack Grealish, Jeremy Doku and Savinho. But Guardiola’s plan ultimately fell short with Liverpool overpowering Man City in key moments to take all three points.

But could Guardiola have stumbled upon the perfect formula to deal with this Liverpool side in their 2-3 Champions League defeat to Real Madrid at the Etihad a few weeks ago?

Against Real Madrid, Guardiola knew the transitional threat that his side would be up against with the likes of Jude Bellingham, Rodrygo, Vinicius Junior and Kylian Mbappe. He therefore made a key tactical tweak to provide protection against this.

On the ball, Man City set up with both of their full-backs inverting into midfield alongside John Stones, who was playing as the lone defensive midfielder on the night. This left Man City with a 2-3 base shape consisting of Nathan Ake and Ruben Dias as the two, and Josko Gvardiol, Stones and Manuel Akanji as the three in front.

By doing this, Guardiola was able to free Silva and Kevin De Bruyne (the No.8s) to drag the Real Madrid midfield pair around, pinning them back with their clever movement between the lines.

This left Man City with a one-man advantage against the Real Madrid front four in build up. The two inverted full-backs Pinned back Bellingham and Rodrygo in narrow central zones, giving them easier access to wide areas to create their attacking moments.

The other benefit of this was Man City having that extra man if the ball was turned over, being able to defend 5vs4 in transitional moments. Their better defenders were then in closer proximity to one another in order to counter-press effectively and limit transitional moments. But how could this help against Liverpool?

Liverpool are the highest-scoring team in the Premier League this season, averaging 2.38 goals per 90 minutes. They also generate the most Expected Goals per game at 2.29 per 90, average the most shots (17.08) and the most big chances created (3.00).

Slot’s side are not reliant on having far more of the ball than the opposing team, beating Bournemouth and Wolverhampton Wanderers in recent weeks despite having 51% and 50% possession respectively. Instead, their focus comes more from direct attacks, utilising the likes of Mo Salah, Cody Gakpo and Luis Diaz on the break and creating a high volume of chances.

One key mechanism often used by Slot to generate chances is leaving Salah in a more advanced position when defending, before looking to find him quickly when possession is regained and attack the space.

By Man City setting up with this 2-3 base shape, Gvardiol and Lewis (or Nunes) would be able to pin the Liverpool wingers further back. This not only gives Man City the same on ball benefits spoken about earlier, but also provides them with a safer shape to protect against those transitional attacks when the ball is turned over.

The one caveat against Real Madrid at the Etihad which came back to bite Man City despite Guardiola’s good tactical decisions in the game, was mistakes on the ball. Man City gave Carlo Ancelotti’s side easy chances, but Guardiola will have a weapon he did not have in the first leg against Madrid available for the Liverpool clash.

Nico Gonzalez was instrumental for Man City against Newcastle United in their 4-0 victory last week, having 114 touches in the game, making 100/103 accurate passes (97%) and winning 4/4 ground duels.

Guardiola even labeled Gonzalez “a mini-Rodri” after the Newcastle game, praising his ability to win 50-50s. But it’s not just extra duel winning capacity that Gonzalez brings to the side. He also keeps things ticking for Man City as seen by his passing numbers, and ensures the team can progress through the thirds as a unit. This then makes them harder to break through once the ball is turned over due to their shape.

Therefore, if Guardiola can combine his 2-3 base tactics from the first leg against Real Madrid to pin Liverpool’s key transition threats, add extra physicality in the middle of the park and neighbour that with the excellence of Gonzalez’s performance against Newcastle, then he could perhaps make it 1-1 against Slot this season.