The Mag
·24 febbraio 2025
Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 4 Nottingham Forest 3

The Mag
·24 febbraio 2025
Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.
To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.
Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.
These are the final three Premier League matches from the weekend, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:
Villa 2.69 v Chelsea 2.17 (2-1)
Newcastle 3.46 v Forest 2.39 (4-3)
Man City 0.56 v Liverpool 0.80 (0-2)
As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.
In all three games, the team with the highest Expected Goals stat also won the match.
However, the three were very different matches.
Not many clear cut chances at either end at the Etihad, Liverpool (Expected Goals 0.80) ruthless with their finishing to win 2-0 against Man City (0.56). Very little in the Expected Goals stats but in favour of the scousers.
At Villa Park, the home side deserving to win as they created more/better opportunities (Expected Goals stats 2.69 v 2.17) but not a lot in it.
At St James’ Park, loads of opportunities at both ends.
Newcastle United though, with a far bigger Expected Goals advantage (3.46 v 2.39) compared to these other two PL matches. Plus of course, Newcastle’s 3.46 Expected Goals threat far far higher than any of these other five clubs.
Indeed, of all 20 Premier League clubs this weekend, only Brighton who hammered rock bottom Southampton 4-0, had a bigger Expected Goals stat (5.12).
Newcastle United ( 3.46) second highest of the 20 PL clubs, with Villa (2.69) third.
Newcastle 4 Nottingham Forest 3 – Sunday 23 February 2025 2pm
(Stats via BBC Sport)
Goals:
Newcastle United:
Miley 23, Murphy 25, Isak 33 pen, 34
Forest:
Hudson-Odoi 6, Milenkovic 63, Yates 90
Possession was Newcastle 57% Forest 43%
Total shots were Newcastle 13 Forest 17
Shots on target were Newcastle 5 Forest 5
Corners were Newcastle 7 Forest 6
Touches in the box Newcastle 34 Forest 26
(Newcastle 4 Nottingham Forest 3 – Match ratings and comments on all Newcastle United players – Read HERE)
Newcastle team v Forest:
Pope, Livramento, Schar, Burn, Hall, Bruno, Miley, Willock (Tonali 70), Gordon, Isak (Wilson 87), Murphy (Barnes 70)
Subs:
Dubravka, Longstaff, Krafth, Targett, Osula, Trippier
Newcastle United upcoming matches:
Wednesday 26 February – Liverpool v Newcastle (8.15pm) TNT Sports
Sunday 1 March – Newcastle v Brighton (1.45pm) FA Cup fifth round – ITV1
Saturday 16 March – Newcastle v Liverpool (4.30pm) Carabao Cup final – Sky Sports