Is Castello Lukeba a Good Fit for Liverpool Under Arne Slot | OneFootball

Castello Lukeba: A Viable Option for Liverpool?

Liverpool’s summer transfer strategy under Arne Slot appears to be taking shape, with Castello Lukeba emerging as a potential target. In the latest episode of Transfer Market Metrics, Dave Davis and Dr Phil Barter broke down the numbers behind the French defender and assessed whether he fits Liverpool’s needs. The statistical deep dive, however, painted a mixed picture.

Lukeba’s Physical Profile: A Concern for the Premier League?

One of the first red flags identified by Dr Phil Barter was Lukeba’s height and aerial ability. “He’s only 184 cm, that’s almost 10 cm less than Virgil [van Dijk] and Ibrahima Konaté,” he noted. “Even Joe Gomez is taller than him.”

This matters in the Premier League, where aerial dominance is crucial. Lukeba’s aerial win rate over the past three seasons hovers in the “50s,” which Barter bluntly described as “not good enough.” He added: “That’s lower than our fullbacks… Virgil is in the 80s, this is 30% less.”

The lack of aerial presence is further reflected in his percentile rankings. “He’s in the seventh percentile for aerial duels. That’s going to be a problem in the Premier League,” Barter emphasised. Liverpool’s defensive system demands players who can command both boxes, making this a key concern.

Performance Metrics: Mixed Signs in Key Defensive Areas

Beyond his aerial ability, Lukeba’s overall defensive numbers raise further questions. His blocking and clearance stats are unimpressive, with Barter noting that his “blocks are in the 47th percentile, clearances in the 45th, and tackles in the 41st.”

However, one positive is his ability to move the ball. “His passing is in the 77th percentile, and he’s attempting passes in the 89th percentile,” Barter pointed out. “He’s more of a passer than a carrier, which is interesting.” This suggests he could fit well in a system that prioritises ball circulation from the back.

Speed is another factor working in Lukeba’s favour. “He’s clocked a top speed of 33km/h, and anything over 28 is quick,” Barter noted. Additionally, his distance covered per game is close to Premier League levels, demonstrating good mobility.

But is that enough to compensate for his weaknesses?

How Does He Compare to Liverpool’s Current Centre-Backs?

When comparing Lukeba to Liverpool’s existing options, the gap becomes evident. “If you compare with Konaté, he dwarfs Lukeba in nearly everything apart from touches and progressive passes,” Barter stated. He also made it clear that Virgil van Dijk’s numbers were on a completely different level.

There has been speculation about Lukeba potentially filling in at left-back, but Barter dismissed this idea. “He has played there a few times in his career, but the stats show it’s minimal time at left-back.” If Liverpool were eyeing him as a versatile defensive option, that argument appears weak.

Is He Worth the Price?

Lukeba’s reported release clause is around £75 million, which raised eyebrows. “If you scoffed before at a prospect, well… he signed an extension in October last year,” Barter remarked, implying that any move would require significant financial commitment.

His recent injury record is also a concern. “He’s missed 14 games this season through hamstring and other injury problems,” Davis highlighted. With Liverpool needing reliability in their defensive reinforcements, this could be a significant deterrent.

Ultimately, while Lukeba has some attributes that could fit Liverpool’s playing style—particularly his passing and speed—his weaknesses in aerial duels, defensive actions, and availability raise doubts. As Barter summarised: “This is a low-rank one compared to the other prospects we’ve looked at.”

With Arne Slot likely prioritising defensive stability, Liverpool may need to look elsewhere for a centre-back who better fits their high-intensity, physically demanding system.