Joao Felix insight: Scouting report, stats, transfer rating and more

SempreMilan

·8 febbraio 2025

Joao Felix insight: Scouting report, stats, transfer rating and more

AC Milan were very busy towards the end of the winter transfer window, and one of the new signings it yielded was Joao Felix from Chelsea.

Felix had been spoken about as a target for virtually the entirety of January but always more in the background than the foreground. Then, on deadline day things accelerated quickly and it became apparent Milan had beaten competition from other clubs.

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The signing was made official the day after as the forward arrived from Chelsea on a six-month dry loan deal, but there is already talk of the desire to explore a permanent move or at least a new loan formula with an option to buy.

Background

Joao Felix’s career has definitely been very bipolar to date, and many will hope that his move to Milan can signify a change in his fortunes after a few years of struggling. For now though, let’s go back to the start of his career.

The Portuguese started his youth career at the age of seven with Os Pestinhas, before joining Portuguese giants Porto a year later at just eight years of age. During the first four years of his time with the club, he struggled due to spending much of his time shuttling between Viseu and the Porto training ground – a three-hour round trip.

As a result of these difficulties, the attacker actually moved out of his parents at 12 to live nearer the training ground and even considered giving up playing the sport, but his father stopped him as he revealed in an interview, as relayed by Tribuna.

“Going to Porto when I was 11 was very difficult. I remember the first night I called my dad crying and saying: “Come get me, I don’t want to stay here, I want to go home. I remember my father said: “okay I will come for you, I will take you home, but I will never take you to training ever again. You knew that it would be difficult so you need to stay and try, but if you want to come home I will get you”.

“So I stayed the rest of the night and then for three more years.”

After those three years, which included a loan move away, he was released by the giants and he moved to Benfica, where was quickly fast-tracked from the academy to the Benfica B team. In 30 games for the B team, he scored nine times, whilst also breaking a Benfica record for the youngest player to debut for the second team.

As a result of his prolificacy, the starlet moved into the first team in the 2018/19 season, albeit on a rotational basis, and in this season, he also became the youngest player to ever score in a Lisbon derby, doing so at just 18 years old.

Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

Bruno Lage’s arrival at Sporting signified the launch of his professional career as the coach opted to start using him in a more significant role.

2019 is the year that saw his career take off and after a host of good performances, including a hat-trick in the Europa League, European clubs became heavily interested in the Portuguese star, especially after his 15 league goals.

In fact, only Jadon Sancho and Kai Havertz contributed more than Felix in that season, a terrific record considering it was his first as a professional.

That summer, Atletico Madrid made the dive on the youngster and agreed a deal with Benfica for €126 million, the fourth-highest fee in history and the second most of any teenager in history behind Kylian Mbappe.

Strengths and weaknesses

When Joao Felix burst onto the scene with Benfica, there was no shortage of comparisons to some of the best players ever to grace the game. While this might have heaped pressure on someone so young, it was because of the obvious talent on display but also the element of wizardry that endears fans to maverick footballers.

Something that really stands out about Felix is that he seems to have the kind of footballing brain that allows him to play in multiple different positions across the forward line and to be able to adapt his game accordingly.

Playing as a second striker or as a winger, what stands out is his movement in and out of possession. In possession when on the ball, he will often look for the most efficient route to goal and he scans the field with speed that only some of the best playmakers can.

The Portuguese looks for quick one-twos to advance the ball with efficiency, but is also proficient in spreading the ball wide when needed or slipping a through ball/forward pass to a team-mate in a better position. Simply put, he thrives on being the creative metronome.

When a team-mate has the ball, Felix has that key characteristic of a No.10 by looking to occupy space between the lines and in the half spaces. If in transition he will run with the ball carrier to try be a passing option, but in more patient build-up he is confident with back to goal, ready to receive on the half-turn and go.

Image: Total Football Analysis

His work rate out of possession is something that seems to have improved over time, and was especially required under Diego Simeone at Atletico Madrid, a system and style with demands not too dissimilar to Conceicao’s.

Felix is often part of the front pressing wave, ready to pressure the ball carrier when the trigger is activated but otherwise often blocking the passing lanes into midfield or out wide depending on his position. This will be very important in Conceicao’s desire to maintain a compact 4-4-2 shape out of possession.

The vision that the former Benfica man shows is what seemed to quickly gain him such a high rating. He sometimes has an eye for passes, shots or other game situations that just don’t seem to be there, and again this is all down to how quickly he reads the game.

Felix can score goals in various different ways too, catching goalkeepers off guard with quick attempts or alternatively applying a bit of finesse and composure, such as in his first goal against Roma where a well-timed run was followed by a lovely dinked finish.

Simply put, the 25-year-old is something of a dying breed in football in the sense that he is a ‘game-breaker’, someone to almost quarterback the attack and who can dictate the tempo of the match almost on his own at times.

His smart runs and improving finishing mean he has played as a striker or as a false nine, playing off the shoulder of the last defender, but a deeper or wider role also allows him to show his artistry a bit more and be a disruptor against deep blocks in and around the edge of the box.

Joao Felix’s pass and heat map in his final Atletico Madrid season show how he drove play down/to the left.

What are the weaknesses then? Consistency is the main one. As mentioned above, with the pressure he was under from such a young age and the ‘future Ballon d’Or’ shouts that came when he was still just a teenager, it can be quite destabilising.

Yet, the fact remains that Felix often alternates good and bad performances, and the same with seasons. Back-to-back 10-goal seasons with Atletico Madrid in 2020-21 and 2021-22 were then followed up by seasons with four and five goals at Chelsea and Atletico respectively.

He went to Barcelona in 2023-24 and managed 10 goals plus six assists to follow that up, but this season up until leaving he had netted only once for Chelsea in the Premier League albeit from limited opportunities.

The other aspect that is still being refined is Felix’s finishing. There are some similarities with Tammy Abraham in the sense that the longer that he has to think about things, the more likely Joao is to overthink it and mess up the chance. Instinctive is best, but even then he cannot be considered a clinical marksman.

Another thing to watch out for is his physicality, or lack thereof. Joao Felix is no more the braces-wearing boy who cut a small presence on the field at Benfica because now at 5ft11 he certainly has a more commanding frame.

That said, he is not the kind to back into and roll off his man. He will not win many tough duels against the bigger built centre-backs and holding midfielders, of which there are many in Serie A. What will be interesting is to see how he can help Milan in low-block situations, or if it will be as simple as pinning him with a man or double teaming him like often contains Rafael Leao.

Finally, something quite peculiar given his good ball striking, technique and vision is that Felix is not a particularly good crosser of the ball. In a similar way to Leao, he often seems to clip them in aimlessly rather than targeted with pace, though sometimes the deliveries are good and they just aren’t met.

Statistical analysis

FBRef’s player scouting tool allows us to compare Joao Felix’s numbers against those of his positional peers across the top five leagues in Europe plus the Champions League and Europa League. For a better sample size in terms of minutes, we have selected his 2023-24 La Liga season.

Felix was in the 92nd percentile (better than 91% of others) in goals scored per 90 with 0.41, as well as being in the 86th for goals plus assists (0.58). His 3.16 fouls drawn per 90 had him in the 99th percentile.

In terms of shooting, the Portuguese was in the top ten percentiles for shots total (3.56), shots on target (1.46), Expected Goals (0.51) and Non-Penalty Expected Goals (0.51), all per 90.

Felix also ranked high on pass completion percentage (87th percentile, 81.1% completion), through balls per 90 (90th percentile, 0.47), carries per 90 (80th percentile, 35.82) and carries into the final third (87th, 3.10).

The most helpful comparison might paradoxically be the one between the two players Conceicao hopes will be able to co-exist in Felix and Rafael Leao.

Leao has only really recently become an established starter for the Portuguese national team and that is largely because of Felix’s presence, who was often preferred on the left and perhaps because of his propensity to work a bit harder off the ball.

Comparing their 2023-24 season with FBRef, Leao had nine goals and nine assists to the seven goals and three assists of his compatriot, but with nearly 1,000 more minutes played in the league (2,512 to 1,540).

In terms of shooting, Felix had a higher shot volume with 3.57 total shots per 90 to Leao’s 2.51, while he also triumphed in shots on target (1.46 to 0.86) and shot on target percentage (41% to 34.3%).

The new signing was also a bit tidier and a bit more involved on the ball, averaging 31.5 completed passes per 90 to Leao’s 27.2, at a completion rate of 81.1% to 73.6% for the former Lille man.

Image: FBRef

Leao’s possessions did seem to lead to a bit more danger though as he had 4.84 Shot Creating Actions per 90 to Joao’s 3.63. The Goal Creating Actions were 0.93 for the former, and 0.53 for the latter.

Defensively, Joao Felix is well clear: 1.29 tackles per 90 to 0.57, 0.82 blocks to 0.54 and 0.58 interceptions to 0.32. We all know how important doing the dirty work will be in the coach’s eyes.

Finally, Joao Felix had more touches per 90 (54.3 to 48.4) and more in the attacking third (28.9 to 26) but fewer touches in the opposing box (6.08 to 6.42) and successful take-ons (1.70 to 2.76).

Conclusion

This is a move that can go one of two ways we feel. Felix has lacked a home in recent years, but when he is trusted, he thrives. See his time at Benfica and the start of his time with Atletico Madrid, for example.

For this reason, you’d imagine that this loan spell has heaps of potential. Felix reportedly campaigned to play for Milan under Sergio Conceicao, so there is already the suggestion that he feels he can do well under the head coach.

However, the fact the deal is a dry loan presents an issue. If the Portuguese does well, there are worries about his future, you have to admit. But, Milan do have an element of safety in case he does not take off.

Transfer rating: 7.5/10