Premier League Saturday Tips: Duran and Bowen backed plus 7/1 double shout for Ipswich | OneFootball

English Premier League

Bowen saves his best for the London Stadium.

Ste Tudor tips goals galore at the Gtech, further gloom for City, and a discipline issue at Portman Road...

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Aston Villa v Man City (12:30) - Crisis on crisis

City have won only once in their last 11 across all competitions and the manner of their derby loss last weekend sends them to the Midlands a supercar with a faulty steering column and a flat tyre.

At least Rico Lewis' return, and the probable return of Manuel Akanji, gives Pep Guardiola greater options to address a broken defence that has remarkably conceded 2.2 goals per 90 since the tail-end of October.Up front the shots keep on coming, a league-high of 282 all season long. It's the finishing that is the issue, especially with Erling Haaland finding himself dragged down by circumstance.

The Striking Viking has notched three in 11 in the league, a poor return by his usual exceptional standards.

And if not Haaland, who? Jeremy Doku has converted two in 12. Phil Foden and Savinho are yet to score from 24 league appearances combined.

Jack Grealish hasn't found the back of the net in over a calendar year.

Can Villa capitalize on City's implosion into mediocrity? If the Holte End are in full voice and with Jhon Duran up front they can, the Colombian scoring every 78 minutes in 2024/25.

Brentford v Nottingham Forest (15:00) - Early goals backed

The Gtech faithful have certainly had value for money this season, with 40 goals raining in (26 for, 14 against). It equates to five goals per 90 with multi-goal thrillers the norm.

Intriguingly, 40% of this colossal tally have been converted in the opening half an hour.

Against high-flying Forest, the Bees will once again turn to their prolific duo of Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa, the pair accruing 22 goal involvements this season combined. Eight of Mbeumo's 10 strikes have come at home while Wissa's shot accuracy impresses, the second best of any player with more than five goals to this name.

The visitors also of course have their own genuine goal-threat in the form of Chris Wood, the forward averaging 0.72 goals per 90.

Forest head to the capital on the back of two outstanding victories and in truth calling this one is hard. Instead then, let's lean into compelling evidence and go for early goals.

Ipswich v Newcastle (15:00) - Midfield melee

The Magpies are weakened by the absence of Joelinton but that pales to Ipswich making do without the suspended Liam Delap.

Not only has the striker notched 37.5% of Town's goals this season but he's in the top-flight top five for applied pressures.

With George Hirst also unavailable it could afford Ali Al-Hamadi his first Premier League start as Ipswich endeavour to secure their first home win of the campaign.

At least confidence will be high, following their away success at Molineux last weekend and the same applies to Newcastle, who moved past a four-game winless streak by comprehensively beating Leicester.

Once again Bruno Guimaraes - the most fouled player in 2024/25 - found himself a targeted man, and once again he gave as good as he got, cautioned for his troubles.

Here the Brazilian comes up against Sam Morsy who has turned over a new leaf after picking up four yellows early in the campaign. Such is the Egyptian's physicality however it's only a matter of time.A fierce midfield battle awaits at Portman Road.

West Ham v Brighton (15:00) - Open season on Hammers

The Hammers have faced the seventh highest number of shots this term which is hardly calamitous. In recent weeks, however, there has been a notable spike with 56 faced in their last three league outings. This against a trio of clubs with an average league placing of 14th.

Lukasz Fabianski in nets deserves a lot of credit for pulling off 15 saves in this period while at the other end Jarrod Bowen is keeping Julen Lopetegui's side competitive, especially at the London Stadium. The England international has 11 goal involvements in 14 at home.

For all this, when a team is conceding 18.7 attempts on their goal per 90, against non-top-six opposition, their season is always going to be an uphill struggle.

Brighton have taken on more shots than Liverpool or Arsenal in 2024/25 and what intrigues about them is their scoring prowess away from the Amex. The last time they failed to convert on the road was way back in April.

Crystal Palace v Arsenal (17:30) - 2/1 double fancied

These teams meet for the second time in four days and though the Gunners progressed to the League Cup semis the Eagles will be encouraged by their backs-to-the-wall performance at the Emirates.

Having taken an early lead, Palace kept the dominant hosts at bay for 50 minutes and despite giving up 71% possession were still in the reckoning in the final moments.

Dean Henderson was largely responsible for that, making six saves throughout.

The keeper will no doubt be kept busy again especially with Odegaard and Saka starting this time. It was the pair's introduction that helped change the game midweek.

The big question is whether Mikel Arteta also starts with Gabriel Jesus, the striker impressing on Wednesday evening with a trio of clinical finishes.

It's reasonable to expect more attacking intent from Oliver Glasner's men this time out, with the Holmesdale End urging on a team that has mined some notable results of late. To that end, the suspended Daniel Munoz is a big loss, the Colombian a valuable asset down their right.

Bukayo Saka has averaged 3.3 shots per 90 this term and boasts five goal involvements from his last four meetings with Palace.

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