Saturday Football Tips: Back UCL final Bet Builder at sweet 16s | OneFootball

Bet of the Day

Our football props column is aiming big with a 16/1 Bet Builder for Saturday's Champions League final between Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan.

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Paris Saint-Germain v Inter MilanSaturday 31 May, 20:00Live on TNT Sports 1 and (for free) discovery+

PSG's shot numbers in this season's Champions League have been outstanding and it makes sense to look for a related angle in Saturday's final.

The French champions have averaged just under 19 per game in this competition, with Ousmane Dembele and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to the fore individually.

Leg 1: Achraf Hakimi 2+ shots

Both are understandably short ahead of this game but the man who looks decent value is full-back Achraf Hakimi.

He's long been a player who loves to surge forward - I remember backing the Moroccan for shots during past World Cups - but the way Luis Enrique has PSG set up at present seems to suit him perfectly.

Hakimi is encouraged to get forward regularly and he's managed to have 2+ shots in 10 of his 16 Champions League games this season, including five of the last six (games against Arsenal, Aston Villa and Liverpool).

With Inter happy to soak up pressure and play on the break, I'm prepared to put Hakimi down for two more shots here at 10/11.

Leg 2: Hakan Calhanoglu 2+ shots

In the same market, I like Hakan Calhanoglu, who is exactly the same price.

The Inter midfielder isn't shy to strike from range, while he's also a key man on free kicks.

He's had 2+ shots in eight of his 10 Champions League starts this season and gets the nod for a repeat.

Leg 3: Nuno Mendes to be fouled 2+ times

The other market worth raiding is the fouls-drawn one.

Nuno Mendes is PSG's other full-back and he'll be pushing on down the left-hand side.

That will put him up against one of Inter's leading foulers, Denzel Dumfries.

Mendes has been fouled multiple times in eight of his last 12 in this competition and given his direct opponent, it's not hard to see that happening again.

Leg 4: Marcus Thuram to be fouled 2+ times

I also like Marcus Thuram in this market.

He's drawn 3+ fouls in his last four Champions League matches, while he's landed the 2+ bet in seven of 10 starts.

He'll be an outlet for Inter when they look to break and he may well be asked to hold the ball up at times to allow others to join the attack.

That will draw in the PSG defenders. Marquinhos and Willian Pacho have both committed a foul in six of their last eight in this competition and I can see them giving the Frenchman a kick and/or nudge at times in this one.

At this point, it's worth mentioning the referee is Istvan Kovacs, who is operating at just over the Champions League average in terms of fouls per game (21.71 v 21.34) - nothing to put us off there.

You can get the higher Thuram line at a tasty-looking 7/2 but I'll play the safer 2+ bet at 11/10.

The four legs combine to create a Bet Builder which pays around 16/1. I think that's worth a try.

Recommended bets

Back Achraf Hakimi & Hakan Calhanoglu 2+ shots each and Nuno Mendes & Marcus Thuram to be fouled 2+ times each @ around 16/1

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 317pts Returned: 321.31pts 2024/25 P/L: +4.31pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts