Serie A preview: Roma vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction | OneFootball

Following the disappointment in the Coppa Italia final, AC Milan have yet another task at Stadio Olimpico as Roma are up next in the league. Our preview tells you everything you need to know about the encounter.

Wednesday’s clash didn’t go quite to plan for the Rossoneri as, after a semi-decent first half, they completely failed to show any final-worthy character in the final 45 minutes. Bologna deservedly clinched the trophy and for Milan, the season is now fully to an end.

Of course, the European race still lives in the league but as Roma are the next opponents, fans are right to be pessimistic about achieving a positive result. Sergio Conceicao didn’t speak to the media either, although this was perhaps expected given the tight schedule.

Game date: Sunday, May 18 Kick-off time: 20:45 (CEST) Venue: Stadio Olimpico Referee: Marco Piccinini (VAR: Meraviglia)

Team news

Despite the loss in midweek, Milan are in very good form in Serie A currently, winning their past three games on the bounce, scoring two or more in each of them. Though, this means little in the wider context of things currently.

The 3-4-3, again barring that Coppa Italia loss, has been the light in a dark few months of the club, but we could see Conceicao be forced to shift from the formation which has brung him so much success in recent times, due to injuries.

Reports ahead of the game suggest that Theo Hernandez (thigh) and Kyle Walker (illness) will both miss the game, limiting the Portuguese’s options at full-back, so a makeshift change may be made, if not a complete system one.

Additionally, Warren Bondo and Samuel Chukwueze are not expected to make the trip, both missing the game through injury. It is a real shame for the former especially, who could have been given a rare chance to play with the season all but done.

It seems that the Portuguese gaffer is actually expected to continue with the three-back formation though, and work with the tools that he has available to him.

Mike Maignan leads the defensive line, whilst Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia and Strahinja Pavlovic should all keep their places in the backline – even after some questionable performances on Wednesday night.

Tijjani Reijnders and Youssouf Fofana retain their places in midfield again, with both hoping to show more than they did in midweek. Alex Jimenez will be moved to the left-hand side, in place of Theo, whilst Yunus Musah earns a rare start at right-wingback.

Photo by Angel Martinez/Getty Images

Rafael Leao and Christian Pulisic will seemingly start either side of Santiago Gimenez, who is currently preferred.

The opponents

To learn a bit more about Milan’s opponents for the game in the capital, we spoke to Samuel Bannister who covers Roma for Giallorossi Yorkshire and has also covered the women’s team for the official website.

Since that game in December which saw Paulo Fonseca sacked, Roma have gone from strength to strength. Why has Ranieri’s return been such a fairytale?

“If you’d have told any Roma fan even back then in December where we’d be now, I don’t think anyone would have believed it. When he took charge, Roma were four points above the relegation zone, 12 games in.

“Until last weekend, he had us on a 19-game unbeaten run in the league, which hadn’t happened since all the way back in his first spell in charge. Ranieri has always been a beloved figure at this club and the fact that it’s him inspiring this kind of form – and especially with it being right at the end of his career – has made it a special second half of the season.”

Tactically, has Ranieri done anything in particular which has brought more out of the team?

“By and large he’s stuck with a back three, but it’s been more settled and his choices have usually been sensible. For example, Angeliño was sometimes playing as a left centre-back before, but Ranieri ruled that out straight away and he’s been one of Roma’s best players as a wing-back.

“More recently, since Dybala’s injury, he’s gone with two strikers with Dovbyk and Shomurodov starting alongside each other. The latter’s more mobile than the former so that’s helped as a pairing.”

Is there a genuine belief that a top four spot is now possible?

“Possible? Yes. Likely? Maybe not… But just to be in contention is incredible. The European places are so congested at the moment, all it takes is one good or bad result to change everything.

“If Roma had gone for it a bit more against Juventus and Lazio, both of which were draws last month, we could have been in command. But it’s not something to kick ourselves too much about.

“We shouldn’t have been anywhere near. There’s still an outside chance we can sneak in but it’ll require a favour.”

What are the feelings ahead of 2025-26, given Ranieri is stepping upstairs?

“To be honest, still mixed until we get some clarity over who’s replacing him (I’ve been trying to put that to the back of my mind and just enjoy the form under Ranieri, but the closer we get to the summer the harder that becomes).

“Some of the candidates that have been linked aren’t the most inspiring. But what this whole spell has proven is that there’s a base of decent players in the squad to build from. As I mentioned in December, last summer’s transfer window was a bit all over the place.

“This year we should be looking for two or three tweaks to help the new coach kick on and match their vision. But Ranieri’s definitely set up a platform and his advice will be useful to call upon – depending on how much weight it’s given.”

Are there any injuries or other absences, and what is your predicted XI?

“As well as Dybala who’s been out since March, the captain Pellegrini is out for the rest of the season too. Other than that, anyone who’d normally be looking to start is available. I’d expect the lineup to be quite similar to what we’ve seen recently.

“In a 3-4-1-2: Svilar, Çelik, Mancini, Ndicka, Saelemaekers, Cristante, Koné, Angeliño, Soulé, Dovbyk, Shomurodov. Instead of Saelemaekers some still expect it to be Rensch, but he didn’t play well in the last game. He might even put Soulé as the right wing-back and put another body in midfield like Pisilli.”

UPDATE: Dovbyk is now a doubt with a muscle problem.

Predicted Roma XI (3-4-1-2): Svilar; Çelik, Mancini, Ndicka; Saelemaekers, Cristante, Koné, Angeliño; Soulé; Baldanzi, Shomurodov.

Head to head

Tomorrow’s game will be the 202nd encounter between these two sides, with Milan currently holding a pretty clear advantage at 83 wins versus Roma’s 53. On the other hand, a whopping 63 games have ended in draws, which suggests this is indeed a very tight fixture.

The reverse fixture earlier this season is an example of that, as the game finished 1-1 following goals from Tijjani Reijnders and Paulo Dybala. Paulo Fonseca was sacked due to the result, it should be remembered, and it was only Claudio Ranieri’s sixth game in charge of the Giallorossi.

As for the latest game at Stadio Olimpico, it took place in the Europa League quarter-finals of the 2023-24, more specifically the decisive second leg. It finished 2-1 in favour of the home side after goals from Gianluca Mancini, Paulo Dybala (again) and Matteo Gabbia (3-1 on aggregate).

In the league, meanwhile, Milan actually won their last game against Roma at the stadium. It was in the third round of the aforementioned season and goals from Olivier Giroud as well as Rafael Leao sealed the deal for the Rossoneri.

Key stats and facts

➤ Roma are the opponent against which AC Milan have won the most matches in their history in Serie A: 80 Rossoneri wins in 179 matches, with 54 draws and 45 Giallorossi wins.

➤ AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 10 league matches against Roma (W6 D4); the Giallorossi’s last win in Serie A was back on 27th October 2019 (2-1 at the Olimpico) – they could register more than 10 games without defeat against the Giallorossi in the top-flight for the first time since the period between 1988 and 1996 (17).

➤ AC Milan have won three of their last four away league matches against Roma (D1), as many wins as in their previous 16 away games against the Giallorossi in Serie A (W3 D7 L6).

➤ AC Milan have won their last three league games and haven’t had four consecutive wins in Serie A this season (three also last September); the last time they recorded four consecutive wins in Serie A was between March and April 2024 (five).

➤ AC Milan are one of two teams, along with Atalanta, to have scored the most goals since MD20 in Serie A this season (both 29), while on the other hand, Roma (10) have conceded the fewest goals in this period.

➤ Artem Dovbyk has scored 12 goals in 2024-25. In the last 90 years, only two players in their debut season in Serie A have scored more goals for Roma: Pedro Manfredini (16 goals in 1959/60) and Tammy Abraham (17 in 2021/22).

➤ With defeat against Atalanta, Roma ended a streak of 19 unbeaten league games (W14 D5); the Giallorossi could lose two matches in a row in Serie A for the first time since November/December 2024 (four, two under Ivan Juric and two under Claudio Ranieri).

➤ AC Milan have won their last three away games in Serie A (against Udinese, Venezia and Genoa); the last time they recorded four consecutive away league wins was betweer September and October 2021 (the fourth win in that case arrived against Roma).

➤ This will be Claudio Ranieri’s 500th match as a manager in Serie A, making him the 12th coach to reach this milestone in the history of the competition. Sunday will mark 34 years and 251 days since his debut as a manager in Serie A (9th September 1990 under Cagliari against Inter), the most between a manager’s 1st and 500th games in the top-flight.

➤ Christian Pulisic (11 goals in Serie A in 2024/25) is close to his best season in terms of goals in the Big-5 European leagues (12 goals in 2023/24); including assists (nine in 2024-25), the American could become only the fourth AC Milan player to reach 10+ goals and 10+ assists in a single Serie A campaign in the last 20 seasons, after Zlatan Ibrahimovic (14G+11A in 2010/11), Ronaldinho (12G+14A in 2009/10) and Kaká (15G+11A in 2007/08).

Ones to watch

We asked Samuel about who Milan should look out for in a red and yellow shirt: “Svilar has been Roma’s saviour time and time again this season, so we’ll be relying on him to keep the goals out.

“Before the Atalanta loss he’d kept three clean sheets in a row. Outfield the performance of Koné will be key; when he’s on form he runs the show. But even the less popular Cristante has put in some decent performances recently next to him.

“The final one to watch I’d say is Soulé, who’s still looking for consistency but has definitely had some moments where he’s stepped up since Dybala’s been out.”

Photo by Pier Marco Tacca/Getty Images

For the Rossoneri, a big performance is needed from Santiago Gimenez, who is seemingly going to be preferred to Luka Jovic, you’d expect largely because of the Serbian’s poor game on Wednesday. The Mexican has provided from the bench, so he will look to make the spot his own from the start here.

Yunus Musah also needs a big performance with him also expecting a starting call-up after a period of absence. The American’s best has normally come at wing-back, so he could potentially change the narrative a little with a decent game.

Prediction

There is a need to bounce back at the stadium which pained Milan only a few days prior to this game. However, it would not be unexpected if there were a few performances not up to standard, considering rotations are still not being considered.

Given what is on the line, you would hope the Diavolo give a proving account of themselves, but we have often failed to see this in these sorts of moments.

Prediction: AS Roma 1-1 AC Milan.