The Marcus Rashford gamble that leaves Aston Villa with four outcomes | OneFootball

Unai Emery’s answer was a non-answer. But, designed to be concealing, it was also revealing. Would Aston Villa take up their £40m option to buy Marcus Rashford? “We don’t want to waste time speaking about it,” the manager replied. And yet he had also outlined the various scenarios that alter the equation.

“If we are in the Champions League, if we are in the Europa League, if we are in the European Conference League or not in Europe or winning a trophy, it is completely different,” Emery said. It was an answer he could deploy if asked about Marco Asensio, another loanee of considerable pedigree but who would require a sizeable outlay if his move was to become permanent.

That kind of long-term upgrade could be expensive. So far, Villa have speculated to accumulate, borrowing in a bid to gain. Rashford propelled them into the last four of the FA Cup, just as Asensio had fired them into the quarter-finals of the Champions League. “We are joining [signing] some players who three or four years ago it was impossible to play for Aston Villa,” noted Emery.

And yet the next two months have a significance beyond the individual futures of footballers paid commensurate with the status they were supposed to hold at Manchester United and Paris Saint-Germain. They will shape Emery’s Villa project, if this season’s Champions League run is a one-off or a sign the 1982 European champions can spend more of the 2020s as a continental force.

There is a financial and footballing difference between the potential outcomes. This could be one of the finest seasons in Villa’s history or a missed opportunity; finish fourth or fifth and win at Wembley against first Crystal Palace and then either Nottingham Forest or Manchester City and it would be seismic. But they are ninth now: the danger is the furthest they venture for a fixture next season is Newcastle. Their Premier League run-in begins with six-pointers, against Brighton and Forest, with others to follow against Newcastle and City, plus the reminders places in the upper echelons can be squandered, in Tottenham and Manchester United.

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With a double-header against Paris Saint-Germain, even the most optimistic may not envisage Emery overseeing a repeat of Tony Barton’s European Cup win. The knockout competitions could leave Villa down and out in Paris and London which, if nothing else, would not be the worst Orwellian nightmare threatened in 2025.

But the routes back into Europe assume an added significance. Villa are paying more than £200,000 a week of Rashford’s wages, albeit only for a few months. They are reportedly covering all of Asensio’s salary. Meanwhile, Uefa’s squad cost rule is supposed to limit clubs to spending a maximum of 80 percent of their income this season, and 70 percent next, on outlay such as wages.

Meanwhile, Villa passed PSR last year, but it seemed to entail selling Douglas Luiz to Juventus and bringing in three players, in Samuel Iling-Junior and Enzo Barrenechea from the Bianconeri and Lewis Dobbin from Everton, who have since vanished on loan. Villa display an enduring ability to be creative – re-signing Jaden Philogene last summer and then selling him in January, recruiting big-name loans while banking £64m for Jhon Duran, finding youth products like Omari Kellyman to sell for £19m of pure profit – and may have to again.

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There are a lot of moving parts; or there could be, anyway, given that Villa’s signings, sales, incoming and outgoing loans in the last 10 months amount to more than 50 transactions. Given that the difference between a lengthy Champions League run and no European football could come to around £100m, the pivotal fixtures may not actually be at Wembley or the Parc des Princes, but the five Premier League games on the road for the side with the worst away record in the top 10.

For now, Emery drew the distinction between the end of the 2022-23 season, which Villa finished fresh, and 2023-24, when, hit by injuries, they limped over the line in the Premier League and crashed out of the Conference League. Now they have five straight wins and an enviable strength in depth. Ollie Watkins, John McGinn, Pau Torres, Amadou Onana, Donyell Malen and Ian Maatsen were among those who began on the bench at Deepdale. Club Brugge were beaten in the Champions League after Emery’s telling substitutions, with Asensio a catalyst in both legs.

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Marcus Rashford’s brace earned Aston Villa victory at Preston (Martin Rickett/PA) (PA Wire)

As Villa famously won the title in 1981 when using a mere 14 players, Emery may have the strongest group of replacements in their history.

All of which has come at a cost. Buying the superstar loanees would entail rather more. The temptation is to wonder if, as Villa continue their short-term trading, with a mixture of boxing clever and brinkmanship, they will instead seek to borrow them again. But the next two months are not just about a bid for glory. As Villa fight on three fronts, they have four possible destinations, four possible budgets.