Arsenal v Real Madrid Champions League Tips: Visitors value at 6/1 | OneFootball

Carlo Ancelotti can celebrate another good night in the Champions League

Arsenal beat Real Madrid over two legs when they last met but Dave Tindall expects a different story this time...

Tuesday Football Superboost

Before his injury Bukayo Saka was often among the shots for Arsenal as well as being a main contender to be foulded. In fact, in eight of his last 10 starts for the Gunners Saka registered at least one shot on target as well as being fouled at least once in the same game.

Against Real Madrid on Tuesday night you can back Saka to have one or more shot on target and to be fouled one or more times at the super-boosted price of 1/1 (from 8/13). To take advantage just click on the odd in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

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Arsenal v Real MadridTuesday 08 April, 20:00

Gunners have surprise winning record

It's a surpise that Arsenal and Real Madrid have only ever played each other twice.

It's a surprise that there was just a single goal across those two games in their two-legged encounter in 2005-6.

It's a surprise, unless you're a Gunners fan who recalls it well, that Arsenal scored the tie's only goal. Much less surprising is that the strike which propelled Arsenal into the last eight was fired home by Thierry Henry.

The Gunners got to the final that year but have never returned. By contrast, Real Madrid have lifted this trophy in six of the last 11 seasons. This is what Arsenal are up against.

And this really is it for Arsenal it seems. With more points dropped away at Everton on Saturday, any lingering title hopes look almost over - even though Liverpool lost at Fulham on Sunday.

Holders a different animal in Champions League

Real Madrid lost 2-1 at home to Valencia at the weekend, so there's that. However, you could tell me that they were going into this one on the back of a 7-0 defeat to Valladolid and it wouldn't make any difference.

When it comes to this tournament, they're an absolute beast.

"We change our mentality in these games," said Jude Bellingham when discussing their victory over Atletico Madrid in the quarters. That followed a playoff win over Manchester City after a lacklustre group phase but again that just highlighted that when Real need to find something, they do so.

Real didn't have Thibaut Courtois in goal for the Valencia defeat but the lanky Belgian looks set to be passed for this one. That's a significant piece of team news. Without him, Real have shipped eight goals in their previous three games.

Aurelien Tchouameni does definitely miss out due to suspension.

Gunners favourites for first leg but Real the value

Despite their vastly contrasting history in this tournament, the market suggests the hosts are more likely to win the first leg in London.

Arsenal are 13/10 for a first-leg victory, with Real Madrid 11/5 and The Draw 23/10.

The To Qualify market gives some overall context though and Real Madrid are clear 8/15 favourites, with Arsenal 29/20.

Looking at current form, Real have lost two of their last three away games although the 1-0 loss to Atletico in the second leg of their last 16 clash didn't ultimately hurt them as Carlo Ancelotti's men won a penalty shootout. Of course they did.

Arsenal are clearly to be respected at home but this is Real Madrid and the away win has to make appeal given their know-how plus Arsenal having to deal with the loss of Gabriel to injury and still lacking consistent firepower up front as Bukayo Saka shakes off the rust following his recent return.

But although Courtois' likely return should stop them leaking goals so easily, it's fair to think Madrid will concede.

In which case the 6/1 for Real Madrid to win and Both teams to Score jumps out. That landed at Manchester City back in February via a 3-2 away win. That was also a first-leg fixture.

Bellingham can bank Bet Builder profits

The anytime scorer prices look welcoming here with Kylian Mbappe 11/5 and Vinicius Junior, who both found the net and missed a penalty against Valencia, is 3/1.

Jude Bellingham hasn't been as prolific this season but still has 13 goals in his last 30 Madrid games after a slow start and two of those have come in his latest three outings.

He's scored away Champions League goals against Manchester City, Brest and Atalanta so I like the 9/2 for him here.

We can bump that up to 11/2 by backing Both teams to Score in a Bet Builder. That's landed in seven of Madrid's last eight games in all competitions and is a decent stand alone shout at 20/23.

Now read all our Champions League previews and tips!

Recommended bets

1pt - Back Real Madrid and Both teams to Score @ 6/1

1pt - Back Jude Bellingham to Score and BTTS @ 11/2

Paul Higham's Build Up tips

Back Saka to be fouled more than Vinicius Jr

This is usually a market Vinicius Jr dominates, but if there is a player who can match the Brazilian in the art of "winning" fouls then it's Bukayo Saka.

OK, the Arsenal man has nowhere near the theatrics that Vini Jr displays at times, but to go along with his pace and twisty trickery he can also take a tumble with the best of them - and in this game I think that can pay off.

The Real Madrid man's stats are scary, with 101 fouls against him for club and country this season, compared to just 52 against Saka, albeit in 15 fewer starts.

La Liga and South American matches are different though, so let's just take the Champions League where the stats are pretty similar - 15 fouls against Vinicius in 10 games compared to seven against Saka in five outings.

Saka is at home with Fran Gracia, with just one Champions League start this season, the likely left-back in opposition with a packed-out Emirates Stadium screaming for absolutely everything.

Plus, Vinicius has only been fouled four times in four Champions League away games, and with that including knockout matches at Man City and Atletico then he's there for the taking in north London, and Saka can deliver at 11/10.

Staked: 67.50pts

Returned: 53.67pts

P/L: -13.83pts

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