AS Roma’s player performance: what it means for the online betting odds

RomaPress

·21 de outubro de 2024

AS Roma’s player performance: what it means for the online betting odds

After ending last season on an upward trajectory, Roma have endured a challenging start to the 2024/25 campaign. They failed to win any of their first four Serie A matches, before head coach and fan favourite Daniele De Rossi was fired from his role on September 18th.

They currently sit tenth in the Italian top flight and are winless in two Europa League outings, and there’s no doubt that Roma betting trends are largely against the Giallorossi in the win and handicap markets.

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But how are Roma’s collective performances affecting online betting, and who are the team’s most influential players?

How AS Roma’s Recent Performances Affect Online Betting

Roma have played nine matches in 2024/25 so far, seven in Serie A and two in the Europa League.

The Giallorossi have triumphed in only two of these matches, with this equating to a disappointing win rate of just 22.22%. They’ve drawn five times and been beaten twice, scoring a paltry nine goals and conceding seven.

These performances are definitely impacting sports betting trends when backing AS Roma. More specifically, bettors are increasingly inclined to wager on under 2.5 goals being scored in Roma matches, with the games contested so far by the Giallorossi averaging just 1.77 goals per 90 minutes.

Of course, Betiton also offers a large range of football betting props and markets. In this respect, Roma’s Artem Dovbyk is a popular pick in the first or anytime goalscorer markets, having contributed four of Roma’s nine goals (44%) during the season. The €30.5 million striker certainly carries a threat and has been consistent in front of goal in 2024/25.

Key Players to Watch in AS Roma for Betting on Football

In addition to betting on Dovbyk, there are other Roma players who remain popular in certain markets, including:

Paulo Dybala: Although this talented and mercurial forward is now 30 years old and frustratingly inconsistent at times, he remains a genuine creative force. To this end, he registered 26 goal involvements last season, scoring on 16 occasions and contributing 10 assists. So, he remains a popular pick to score and assist in matches.

Lorenzo Pellegrini: The 28-year-old midfielder Lorenzo Pellegrini is another of Roma’s key players, and one who regularly offers particular value as first or anytime goalscorer. He scored 10 goals in 41 appearances for the club last season and has contributed 43 goals in 177 matches since the beginning of 2020/21.

Tommaso Baldanzi: A relative newcomer to the Roma starting 11, the 21-year-old midfielder Baldanzi is a highly creative player with an eye for goal. He has previously scored six goals in 41 appearances for Empoli during a two-year loan spell and has already established himself as an influential first teamer in 2024/25.

What Does Player Performance Mean for Football Betting Odds?

When you engage in online football betting, there’s no doubt that team and player performances can impact future odds.

For example, the latest football betting odds show that Roma are priced at a distant 3.85 to defeat Inter Milan in their next Serie A game, despite having home advantage. These odds imply just a 25.97% probability of Roma defeating Inter, with the defending Serie A champions the overwhelming favourites at 1.80.

Roma’s lack of collective form is a clear factor here, as is their injury list. For example, on-loan winger Alexis Saelemaekers remains sidelined until December with an ankle injury, while Stephan El Shaarawy is likely to miss out with a calf complaint.

The aforementioned Dybala is also a doubt with muscular problems, leaving Roma understrength as they look to reverse their fortunes. Recent form and injury news are key considerations when betting on football, while factors like home field advantage and historic head-to-head data also impact odds.

Match Predictions and Sports Betting Strategies

Certainly, the analysis of team and player performance data can help you to make more informed betting decisions. But what’s the optimal football betting strategy in this regard? Here are some ideas to keep in mind:

Identify the Key Data for Specific Markets: Firstly, you’ll need to identify the datasets that are most relevant to your chosen betting markets. For example, if you’re backing a match winner, compare the home and away form for each team and their historic head-to-head records. Conversely, if you’re picking an anytime goalscorer, evaluate the most prolific players and latest injury news while also appraising how the market leaders have fared against specific opposition.

Access More Granular Datasets: If you’re betting online and want to back the first goalscorer in a match, you may want to drill down into more granular datasets. For example, while Dovbyk may be Roma’s top scorer, his three Serie A goals this season have come from 19 shots on goal. This equates to a goals-per-shot ratio of just 0.16, which suggests that he needs numerous chances to score. So, if Roma are playing a superior opponent, Dovbyk may not offer value in the first scorer market.

Analyse Both Goals and Expected Goals: We’ve already touched on Roma’s struggles in front of goal, with the Giallorossi scoring just eight goals in seven Serie A matches (at a rate of 1.14 per 90). Their xG is also relatively low at just 10.2, so Roma have been both wasteful and lacked creativity in the 2024/25 season so far. This type of analysis can help to inform your over/under betting selections, alongside moneylines and spreads against certain opponents.

What to Consider When Betting Online on AS Roma

When formulating match predictions and football betting tips, there are numerous variables to be considered. The same is true when engaging in online sports betting on AS Roma, but what are the key factors aside from team and player form?

The Odds: In football, online betting odds relay both your potential return (in relation to your stake) and the implied probability of particular outcomes occurring. Occasionally, your analysis may show that the implied probability of a Roma win or loss is greater than the odds suggest, creating an opportunity to engage in value betting. So, always assess and compare odds to identify the highest value markets in real-time.

The Weight of Home Field Advantage: Home field advantage is prominent in all team sports, although its impact varies from one football league to another. Across the 380 Serie A matches played in 2023/24, home sides won 42% of the time, while teams on the road accounted for 29% of all victories. When appraising team form, it’s therefore also important to consider home field advantage and whether this favours AS Roma or not.

Team News and Rotation: We’ve already touched on how team news is key to determining odds and betting selections. Both injuries and suspensions are key considerations when engaging in match betting, while Roma may also rotate their starting eleven when playing weaker opposition or certain Europa League games. By following this news in real-time and through official channels, you can make more informed picks and potentially identify new betting markets.

Live Football Betting on AS Roma Matches

If you’re a Roma fan who likes to watch matches in real-time, you may also want to engage in live football betting.

This certainly unlocks a more diverse range of betting markets, including the identity of the next goalscorer in a game or whether or not a player will receive a red card.

You can better evaluate such markets by watching contests as they unfold, as this enables you to see which players are performing well against a direct opponent and precisely how the momentum of the match is fluctuating.

Just be wary: live odds are dynamic and liable to fluctuate wildly in a short space of time. So, the timing of your bets and cash outs is crucial, while you’ll also have to manage your bankroll carefully due to the sheer number of markets available in-play!

Conclusion: Using AS Roma’s Player Performance for Online Betting on Football

If you’re going to bet on AS Roma in 2024/25, there’s no doubt that players’ performances will have a direct impact on your betting selections. Individual form also impacts collective performances and your pick of moneylines, spreads and totals markets.

Also, being able to identify the most relevant datasets and analyse these is key if you’re to successfully evaluate player performances.