Bournemouth 'should' be sixth in the Premier League | OneFootball

Relatively new metrics such as expected goals are revolutionising how managers, pundits and fans assess performance and, according to the numbers, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace should be considerably higher up the Premier League table.

Currently 11th, Andoni Iraola's Cherries travel to sixth-placed Manchester City tomorrow night trailing their hosts by 12 points and five league places. However, according to OPTA Analyst, Bournemouth should be breathing down the Cityzens' neck and right in the hunt for a Champions League place!

Based on teams' expected goals (xG), expected points (xP) seeks to look beyond match outcomes to evaluate performance based on shot data and - specifically - the quality of the chances teams create and concede.

Therefore, xP can help to reveal overachieving or underperforming teams by comparing actual points (from the league table) to expected points (from performance data).

The OPTA data suggests that based on the quality of the shots they have created and conceded, Bournemouth 'should' be seven points better off this season (with 60 points not 53) and can consider themselves unfortunate not to be sat in sixth place instead of Manchester City (who are fifth in an xP-governed parallel universe).

Oliver Glasner's FA Cup winners Crystal Palace are in a similar boat to the Cherries, as they place eighth in the 'Expected Points' table - the Eagles totting up 55.7 xP despite sitting 12th with only 49 points in the Premier League this term. A first-ever FA Cup trophy on their mantelpiece will no doubt offset the Londoners' disappointment, we imagine.

Goals, rather than expected goals, obviously win or lose games, but these statistics provide food for thought and perhaps crumbs of comfort for Bournemouth fans who realistically need their team to beat Pep Guardiola's City tomorrow night, if they are to keep alive their slim chances of following the Cherries in Europe next season.