Chelsea v FC Noah Conference League Tips: A 7/1 double tempts as Blues comfortably triumph | OneFootball

Noah's arc

From complete obscurity to European football, it's been a remarkable journey so far for FC Noah.

In 2016 the Armenian club didn't even exist, merely an idea on paper. On Thursday evening they travel to Stamford Bridge to take on a behemoth who have twice won the Champions League.

Unquestionably this is the biggest game in their very short history, and unquestionably it's the very definition of a David vs Goliath scenario but still we should not underestimate their substantial achievements to date.

Finishing runner-up in the Armenian top-tier last term, Noah have reached the league phase of this competition after navigating a path from the first qualifying round, beating AEK Athens along the way.

They secured a victory in their opening league phase outing, bettering Czech side Mlada Boleslav and in Goncalo Gregorio they possess a striker who has fired six goals in this tournament already. Should a bombshell occur he's the man to back at 13/2 to score.

But of course the Blues are expected to prevail here and, in all probability, comfortably so. The trick is to find value within that context.

This leads us to Noah's stoic rearguard. Rui Mota's men may be fourth in their domestic league right now but they have conceded the fewest number of goals. In losing to Rapid Vienna last time out they frustrated their hosts to just a single goal advantage.

Early advantage for hosts

Enzo Maresca has quickly implemented a winning mandate at Chelsea and similarly his players tend to waste little time in executing his methods.

Nicolas Jackson and company have scored inside 25 minutes in nine of their 16 matches this season across all comps. 30.5% of their total goal haul have come within this early period.

Moreover, they are good frontrunners, winning nine of the 11 occasions in which they have taken the lead in 2024/25. Another was drawn.

With a strong front-line of Nkunku, Felix, Sancho and Mudryk anticipated expect their superiority to tell from the off this Thursday.

Felix backed at Evens

A peripheral figure in the Premier League, Felix has been deployed twice-over in the Conference League, playing alongside Christopher Nkunku away to Panathinaikos and behind him vs Gent.

In the latter, the 24-year-old's influence was minimal, the contest erupting into a flurry of goals around him but in Greece he was pivotal, orchestrating proceedings from the front.

In addition to scoring twice there were two further attempts on goal as well as eight successfully completed long balls. On the night, he was central to everything that was good about Chelsea.

Given the minnow status of their opponents here we can presume he will once again play in a more advanced role. It's worth noting that Felix boasts a goal involvement every 115 minutes this term.

Pens rife in Europe

In the Premier League this season just 3.4% of scored goals have come from the penalty spot. In European competition that more than doubles to 7.3%.

To include pens missed incidentally it is reasonable to increase both figures by a third.A difference in refereeing mostly explains this stark disparity and it absolutely brings pens into play when it comes to the betting, especially as Chelsea have converted from the spot in three of their four Conference League outings to this point.

At the double

With any David v Goliath clash it is inevitably difficult to find outstanding value. Here is where doubles and bet builders become your friend.

Due to Jadon Sancho being a probable but not definite to start after illness, it is Joao Felix who offers up the best price in the goal-scoring market.

Chelsea meanwhile should win comfortably but any form of massacre feels unlikely given Noah's well-organised back-line.