Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Leicester 0 Newcastle 3 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the final five Premier League matches from the weekend, played on Sunday and Monday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Brentford 1.36 v Chelsea 1.44 (0-0)

Fulham 1.73 v Liverpool 1.41 (3-2)

Spurs 2.65 v Southampton 0.78 (3-1)

Man U 1.23 v Man City 0.69 (0-0)

Leicester 0.35 v Newcastle 3.44 (0-3)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

Two goalless draws in two matches where there was minimal goal threat, with Brentford, Chelsea, Man U and Man City creating so few decent chances and not scoring a single goal between the four of them.

Then the other three matches, in each case the winning team having the higher Expected Goals stat compared to their opponent.

Looking in more detail at the Newcastle United match, I think it is worth pointing out a few things.

I know some Newcastle fans were disappointed that United didn’t go on to score more goals after getting into such a dominant position so early. However, I think worth looking at just how dominant Eddie Howe’s side were overall, across the whole match, in terms of creating good chances and not allowing the opposition any/many.

I haven’t listed the five PL matches played on Saturday but here a few Expected Goals stats concerning all 20 Premier League teams this weekend, how they compare.

Newcastle United had by far the biggest Expected Goals stat (3.44) of all 20 PL clubs this weekend, the next highest were Wolves (2.81) who won 2-1 at Ipswich.

Leicester (0.35) were restricted to the very lowest Expected Goals stat of the weekend, with Crystal Palace (0.44) next lowest.

Newcastle United had easily the biggest difference in Expected Goals stats against their opponent, a difference of 3.09 (3.44 minus 0.35). The next biggest difference was Wolves with a 1.94 advantage against Ipswich (2.81 minus 0.87).

Leicester 0 Newcastle 3 – Monday 7 April 8pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Murphy 2, 11 Barnes 34

Leicester:

Possession was Newcastle 42% Leicester 58%

Total shots were Newcastle 16 Leicester 7

Shots on target were Newcastle 5 Leicester 2

Corners were Newcastle 2 Leicester 12

Touches in the box Newcastle 23 Leicester 16

Newcastle team v Leicester:

Pope, Trippier (Krafth 87), Schar, Burn, Livramento, Joelinton (Miley 65), Tonali, Bruno (Longstaff 65), Barnes, Isak (Wilson 72), Murphy (Osula 72)

Unused Subs:

Dubravka, Ruddy, Targett, Neave

(Leicester 0 Newcastle 3 – Match ratings and comments on all Newcastle United players – Read HERE)