FA Cup predictions: Five things we think will happen this weekend in the third round | OneFootball

The FA Cup third round weekend is here.

This round brings Premier League and Championship sides into the fray, all dreaming of a trip to Wembley come the end of the season.

The marquee match for the third round is Arsenal hosting Manchester United at the Emirates, with one of the Premier League giants guaranteed to bow out. Elsewhere, there will be a number of lower-league sides looking to claim Premier League scalps, including Accrington Stanley who travel to face Liverpool at Anfield.

So, what do we think will happen this weekend? We’ve made five predictions below.

Arsenal to end Premier League curse to reach fourth round

Arsenal haven’t enjoyed themselves in the FA Cup of late. Since lifting the trophy in Mikel Arteta’s first season in 2019-20, Arsenal have only made it past the third round twice in the past four years.

During that time, Arsenal have played six games, losing four and winning two. In all four of the defeats, Arsenal failed to find the net. And three of those four of those defeats came against Premier League opposition.

Even one of the wins, against Premier League side Newcastle United, saw Arsenal need extra-time. So, looking at 90 minutes only, Arsenal have failed to score in five of their past six FA Cup games. The only exception there was a 0-3 away win over Oxford United in the third round in 2022-23.

Fortunately for Arsenal, they’re playing an opponent against whom they have enjoyed scoring of late. The Gunners have scored 11 goals across their past four home games against Man United, including at least three goals in three of those matches.

Arsenal will also feel positive about their chances of scoring from set pieces. The Gunners have scored 10 goals from set pieces in the Premier League this season. Man United have also conceded 10 goals from set pieces in the Premier League this season.

Chelsea’s cup team to get the job done

Four years ago Chelsea made it through to the fourth round of the FA Cup with a 4-0 win over Morecambe — their first-ever meeting. It’s the same opponent in the third round this time, and Chelsea know they have the cup side capable of getting the job done.

Although they didn’t last too long in the EFL Cup, Chelsea’s second string finished the Europa Conference League league phase perfect. They won six out of six games to finish top of the group, without playing Enzo Maresca’s first-choice players.

One of the key men in the cup team is Christopher Nkunku. The Frenchman is Chelsea’s second-top scorer across all competitions this season, scoring 12 goals in 27 appearances. Of those goals, 10 have come in cup competitions including eight in the Europa Conference League. Two were in qualifying, with Nkunku scoring in all but one of his appearances in the competition.

Excluding Europa Conference League qualifying, Nkunku had 21 shots in cup competitions this season, posting an Expected Goals total of 5.95. And that brought eight goals, with five in the Conference League league phase.

The Frenchman also needed a hat-trick against League Two side Barrow in the third round of the EFL Cup, despite not looking at his best. Nkunku is likely to start against Morecambe this weekend, and he’ll be expected to continue his good cup record.

Salford to worry Man City

Now, we’re not expecting a full upset here. But Salford City should give Manchester City‘s defence something to worry about.

Pep Guardiola’s side have struggled a lot this season, especially in defence. They’ve kept just two clean sheets in their past 14 games across all competitions. In that time, Man City have conceded 26 goals, including at least two in 10 different matches.

Just six of those 14 games were at the Etihad Stadium, but Man City have still conceded in five home matches (11 goals). The Citizens are without a clean sheet in their past three home games, winning one, drawing one and losing one.

And they face a Salford side on a good run in front of goal. Since a 1-0 defeat to Gillingham in December, Salford have scored in six consecutive matches. During that run, the League Two side have scored 12 goals, including five away from home.

Newcastle to end Bromley dreams with ease

Newcastle United are in fantastic form right now. The Magpies have won their past seven games across all competitions, reaching the semi-finals of the EFL Cup and chasing a top-four finish in the Premier League.

What’s been most impressive about Newcastle during this run is their defence. Despite missing first-choice goalkeeper Nick Pope, the Magpies have kept five clean sheets in their past seven games. Only Brentford in the EFL Cup quarter-finals and Tottenham Hotspur in the league have breached the Newcastle net.

In that time, Newcastle have faced 74 shots in total, with 50 coming from inside the box. But just 13 of those have hit the target, with an Expected Goals on Target total of 3.6. In the Premier League and EFL Cup, since 14th December, only Nottingham Forest (3.3) have faced a lower xGOT than the Magpies.

Newcastle have just conceded two goals, with Martin Dubravka having to make 11 saves across seven games. Against League Two opposition, Newcastle will be confident of a clean sheet, having shut out Arsenal just days ago.

Cody Gakpo to break FA Cup duck

Cody Gakpo is an EFL Cup merchant. But he’s yet to open his account in the FA Cup. Since joining Liverpool in January 2023, Gakpo has scored eight goals in 10 games in the EFL Cup. The bulk of those came last season, as he played a big role in Liverpool winning the competition.

But Gakpo’s first taste of cup competition came in the FA Cup, actually making his Liverpool debut in the third round against Wolverhampton Wanderers.

He hasn’t had the same luck in the FA Cup, though. In fact, Gakpo is yet to score in his seven FA Cup appearances for Liverpool.

But the Dutchman has been in good goalscoring form this season. Gakpo has scored 12 goals in 29 games for Liverpool across all competitions, at an average of 0.69 per 90 minutes. He’s had to make do with switching between the left flank and through the middle. But he looks to have made a home on the left.

Gakpo has averaged 3.21 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, with 1.49 hitting the target. He has also averaged an xG of 0.37 per 90, with xGOT at 0.49. That’s a shot placement ratio of 1.32, improving his chances of scoring by where in the goalmouth he is placing his shots.

Against lower-league opposition, things are looking positive for Gakpo to finally score in the FA Cup.