Ligue 1 Tips: Back Marseille to inflict more misery on struggling Lens | OneFootball

French Ligue 1

Adrien Rabiot has been in sensational form for Marseille

On a run of 20 winners from his last 27 Ligue 1 selections, James Eastham reveals the smart routes to profit ahead of this weekend's French top flight fixtures...

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Marseille vs Lens - Depleted visitors worth opposing

Saturday, 20:05Live on Ligue 1 Pass

Lens were massively weakened during the January transfer window and that is the primary reason we expect them to lose at Marseille this weekend.

No fewer than four members of Lens' ideal starting line-up when the window opened - goalkeeper Brice Samba, centre-backs Kevin Danso and Kodir Khusanov, and right wing-back Przemyslaw Frankowski - had left the club by the time the window closed.

The only one of the four to be adequately replaced was Frankowksi, as Lens had an equally good right-wing-back already on their books in Ruben Aguilar.

No new signings were made to replace Samba, Danso, or Khusanov, however so the defence is now a lot weaker.

The stats bear this out. Lens have conceded 11 goals in just four Ligue 1 matches since February 1. In 20 Ligue 1 games up until that point, they were conceding at a rate of under one goal a game.

Marseille are primed to take advantage. Sitting second in the Ligue 1 table, Roberto De Zerbi's hosts have a stack of players looking sharp in the final third.

Algeria striker Amine Gouiri has scored three times in four starts since his January move from Rennes. Mason Greenwood took his tally to 15 Ligue 1 goals for the season (netted at a rate of a goal every 136 minutes) with a typically well-placed strike in l'OM's 2-0 home win vs Nantes last weekend.

And, playing in a more advanced role than he normally has in his career, France midfielder Adrien Rabiot has got in on the act, too: since early December, the ex-Juventus man has scored six times in 13 starts.

Marseille are an understandably short 1.57 to win. For bigger odds, we prefer backing the home team on the Asian Handicap.

With our selection, you will have your stakes refunded if Marseille win by a single goal, and make a profit if they win by two or more goals. Ten of Marseille's 15 Ligue 1 wins this season have been by a margin or two or more goals.

For a guide to how Asian Handicap markets work, click here.

Le Havre vs St Etienne - All stats point towards goals

Sunday, 16:15Live on Ligue 1 Pass

The chances of this game having Over 2.5 Goals look far bigger than the market suggests, which makes Overs a great selection on this clash between struggling rivals (Le Havre are 16th, St Etienne 17th) on Sunday afternoon.

On the Exchange, Over 2.5 Goals is available at odds of 1.95. That is the market's way of saying that there is a 51 per cent chance of this game having three goals or more.

The statistics say a high-scoring encounter is much more likely: you only have to look at the two sides' results in 2025.

Since the turn of the year, six of Le Havre's nine Ligue 1 games have had Over 2.5 Goals, with four having Over 3.5 Goals. The average number of goals per game across Le Havre's nine matches is 3.67.

Six of St Etienne's nine Ligue 1 games in 2025 have had Over 2.5 Goals as well. Five of those matches have had Over 3.5 Goals. St Etienne's average goals-per-game count is 3.78.

The statistics are emphatic: an open, high-scoring game looks likely, and the market has grossly underestimated the chances of this occurring.

Recommended bets

Back Marseille -1.0 Asian Handicap at home to Lens @ 1.95Back Le Havre vs St Etienne Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95

James' 2024-25 P/L