Opta data rates Freiburg, Dortmund and Leipzig's chances of claiming final Champions League spot | OneFootball

Opta data rates Freiburg, Dortmund and Leipzig's chances of claiming final Champions League spot | OneFootball

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·30 de abril de 2025

Opta data rates Freiburg, Dortmund and Leipzig's chances of claiming final Champions League spot

Imagem do artigo:Opta data rates Freiburg, Dortmund and Leipzig's chances of claiming final Champions League spot

With two sides in Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen guaranteed their place in the UEFA Champions League next season, it’s time we have a look at the chasing pack.

With three Bundesliga games remaining, the race for European football is heating up and the Opta Analyst computer allows us to look at each team’s chances.


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Eintracht Frankfurt

Die Adler are on course for their best Bundesliga table finish since the 2011-12 campaign when they finished in second place.

With a 4-point lead on fourth place going into the final three Matchdays, the Opta supercomputer gives Frankfurt a 98.62% chance of making the Champions League.

It would take a serious run of unfortunate events for Dino Toppmoller’s men to drop into the Europa League berth which only stands a 1.16% possibility.

SC Freiburg

The Breisgauers endured a difficult spell of poor form throughout March and into early April, but three wins on the bounce have boosted Julian Schuster’s men into fourth place.

With a narrow 2-point lead over fifth place RB Leipzig and three fixtures remaining, Opta believes Freiburg have a 50.72% possibility of reaching the Champions League.

Should the Breisgauers fail to do so, the supercomputer calculates a 25.22% chance of finishing in the Europa League spot and a 20.06% score for a Conference League slot.

Borussia Dortmund

The Yellow and Black club from the Ruhrpott were handed a measly 5.1% chance of returning to Europe’s premier competition back in February after a torrid spell under ex-boss Nuri Sahin.

Niko Kovac appears to have greatly boosted those odds since taking over as head coach with Dortmund now at 25.68% odds to finish in the fourth and final Champions League spot.

However, Opta believe BVB are more likely to be destined for the Europa League next season with their calculations regarding a possible fifth-place finish at 34.66%. A Conference League place is a fraction less likely at 31.54%.

RB Leipzig

The Marco Rose tenure went up in flames a handful of weeks ago after several sub-par performances and results paved the way for Szolt Low to take over.

Opta’s analytics team believe Die Roten Bullen have a 17.61% possibility of snatching a Champions League ticket, while their Europa League odds rest on 21.49%.

The Conference League could be the most likely destination for the Saxony club at a 50.91% possibility. Interim coach Low has been left with a mountain of work to do since his arrival!

Mainz 05, Werder Bremen & Borussia Monchengladbach

All three clubs in this bracket still stand an extremely small outside chance of reaching the Champions League. Mainz (5.22%), Bremen (2.11%) and Gladbach (0.03%) require major miracles for that to happen.

When it comes to Europa League prospects, once again seventh-place Mainz (11.68%) lead the way, with Bremen (5.17%) and Gladbach (0.39%) trailing behind them.

Mainz’s 20.10% chance of a Conference League berth is the best of the rest, as Bremen (11.42%) and Gladbach (2.34%) fare both slightly and considerably less likely.

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