Serie A preview: Monza vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

SempreMilan

·01 de novembro de 2024

Serie A preview: Monza vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan are back in Serie A action on Saturday night as they make the short trip to face Monza, looking to right the wrongs from earlier in the week.

The defeat against Napoli on Tuesday night has once again thrust Milan into a state of crisis, at least in the eyes of the media. They have now lost five of their 12 games under Paulo Fonseca across all competitions, and are 11 points behind the leaders in the league.

Vídeos OneFootball

Paulo Fonseca did not do a pre-match press conference for reasons that remain unknown, but even without being asked any difficult questions he must know the pressure he is under to deliver results quickly.

Game Date: Saturday, November 1 Kick-off time: 20:45 (CET) Venue: U-Power Stadium Referee: Ermanno Feliciani (VAR: Serra)

Team news

There was reportedly a meeting between Fonseca and his superiors after the defeat against Napoli. As Calciomercato.com reported, what emerged is that the coach will be evaluated at the next international break, so may potentially have a few games to save his job.

In terms of injury news, there are some long-term absentees that are still not available for selection in Alessandro Florenzi, Ismael Bennacer and Marco Sportiello, each of whom are still recovering from surgery.

Matteo Gabbia, on the other hand, is still on the sidelines with a calf problem. It was expected that he would miss the Monza game, and now all attention is on whether he can return against Real Madrid or if he might be done until the next international break.

Now we move on to the good news. First of all, Luka Jovic and Davide Calabria did the full training session with the rest of the squad which means they will almost certainly be available at the weekend.

In addition to that, Tammy Abraham ‘s recovery continues after the shoulder problem (presumably a dislocation) he suffered in the 1-0 victory against Udinese. The Englishman is also getting closer to returning to the field, but will not be available for this game.

Most importantly, Theo Hernandez and Tijjani Reijnders have served their suspensions and will be available again, while Christian Pulisic has fully recovered from the flu that made him sit on the bench from minute on of the Napoli loss.

The opponents

It would be fair to say that Monza built on their first campaign in Serie A last season as they finished 12th, thus comfortably avoiding relegation and asserting themselves as a mid-table side after coming 11th in 2022-23.

However, the Biancorossi were caught up in the coaching merry-go-round that occurred over the summer. Thiago Motta left Bologna for Juventus, Vincenzo Italiano replaced him, and then Raffaele Palladino left Monza for La Viola.

Adriano Galliani turned to someone he knows very well from his days with Milan in Alessandro Nesta, who thus got his first Serie A coaching gig after spells with Perugia, Frosinone and Reggiana.

Monza spent just €3m in the summer, and that was on Georgios Kyriakopoulos from relegated Sassuolo. The other additions were Daniel Maldini, Stefano Sensi and Omari Fosun on frees, plus Stefano Turati, Alessandro Bianco and Samuel Pizzignacco on loans.

In terms of sales, it was also a quiet window. Carlos Augusto’s loan to Inter was made permanent for €13.25m, while Juventus signed goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio for a €4.5m loan fee and Andrea Colpani went to Fiorentina for a €4m loan fee. Both deals are expected to become permanent.

The rather underwhelming mercato seems to have seeped into their start to the season. It took the Brianzoli until matchday eight to win their first game (3-0 away at Verona), and it is their only victory to date.

Draws against Fiorentina and Inter in the first four games boosted spirits, however, they have lost to Genoa, Bologna, Napoli and Atalanta, leaving them hovering above the relegation zone and with talk of Nesta being on shaky ground.

After the loss to La Dea, Nesta is considering wholesale changes of his own and these will start in defence with Armando Izzo and Andrea Carboni set to replace Danilo D’Amborsio and Luca Caldirola – Pablo Mari will remain at the heart of the defence.

In midfield, there is only one change expected which will see Warren Bando return after serving his suspension in midweek, and he will partner the captain Matteo Pessina. On the wings, Pedro Pereira and Georgios Kyriakopoulos will be named once again.

Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

Nesta is considering changing his front three as well, with Dany Mota set to be partnered by the returning Daniel Maldini after the former Rossonero addressed his condition during in his press conference. Milan Duric will start ahead of them.

Predicted Monza XI (4-3-3):

Head to head

Milan have played against Monza just 15 times across all competitions since their formation in 1899, with 13 of those being wins and two being defeats, of which one came last season.

The first ever fixture between the sides was in the 1957-58 group stage of the Coppa Italia, with the Rossoneri triumphing 4-1 and 1-0 against their Lombardy neighbours.

In Serie A the first games came in 2022-23 when Monza achieved promotion under Silvio Berlusconi’s ownership. Stefano Pioli’s side won 4-1 at home with Brahim Diaz (2), Divock Origi and Leao scoring, and 1-0 away thanks to Junior Messias’ goal.

Last season, however, this particular fixture plunged Milan further into crisis. Matteo Pessina and Dany Mota put Monza 2-0 up at the U-Power Stadium, then Olivier Giroud and Christian Pulisic pulled it back to 2-2.

The drama wasn’t done after the 88th-minute equaliser though, as Warren Bondo and Lorenzo Colombo (on loan from Milan) scored late on to seal a memorable 4-2 home win.

Key facts and stats

➤ None of the last four meetings between Monza and Milan have ended in a draw in Serie A, with the Rossoneri winning three on the bounce before the Brianza team won in the most recent match back in February – a 4-2 win at the U-Power Stadium.

➤ Monza drew their last home game against a Lombard team in the league (1-1 against Inter in September) and have never went unbeaten in two consecutive home games against such teams in Serie A.

➤ Milan won their last match against a Lombardy team in Serie A (2-1 in the derby against Inter) and have not won two games in a row against opponents from their own region since February 2023, when they beat Monza and Atalanta.

➤ Monza have not managed a single victory from their last nine home games in Serie A (D4 L5), the longest current streak among the teams currently in the top-flight and overall only Bari, Benevento, Reggiana, Salernitana and SPAL are on a longer run without victory in home games in the competition.

➤ Milan have won just one of their first four away games this season (D1 L2), a victory that came in the derby played as a visiting team (2-1 vs Inter). The last time the Rossoneri achieved just one win or fewer from their first five away games of the Serie A season was in 2018/19.

➤ Milan have lost 3+ of their first nine games (3) in a single Serie A campaign for the first time since 2019/20 (5 defeats in that case).

➤ Milan have lost two of their last three league games (W1), against Fiorentina and Napoli, as many defeats as they suffered in their previous 11 matches in the competition (W4 D5).

➤ Dany Mota and Milan Djuric are Monza’s two top scorers at home in the league this season with two goals each. The Portuguese has scored eight home goals in total with the Brianza team in Serie A, just two goals behind Andrea Colpani, the top scorer at the U-Power Stadium.

➤ Christian Pulisic has already scored three goals in four away games in Serie A this season, whilst in the whole of last season he scored four goals in his 18 away games. When considering his time in the Big 5 European Leagues, only in 2019/20 did Pulisic score more than four goals away from home (seven in that season).

➤ In the last three Serie A seasons (since 2022/23) with Rafael Leão as a starter, Milan have won 60% of their league matches (38 out of 63), earning an average of 2.1 points per game. Without him from the starting XI however, Rossoneri’s success percentage drops to 36% (8 out of 22), earning an average of 1.3 points per game.

Ones to watch

Looking first at the hosts, Milan must be wary of Warren Bando in the midfield, and given their extensive interest in the Frenchman, the game could be used as an opportunity to further scout him, given there have been reports about the Rossoneri looking to bolster their midfield.

Of course, we must also highlight Daniel Maldini, the man who needs no introduction. The attacking midfielder has begun writing his own chapter, and a high-level performance against the Diavolo could be the perfect opportunity to look ahead to the next page of the chapter.

Looking at the Rossoneri, the first player to watch is Filippo Terracciano. Fonseca is set to name him as the starting right-back on Saturday, and this decision is somewhat confusing. Nevertheless, it is an opportunity that the young Italian must take.

Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

Finally, we need to see a little more from Alvaro Morata. Since joining, the Spaniard only has three contributions, and whilst his role has fluctuated, he needs to be more impactful, especially now the Diavolo have all three senior strikers available.

Prediction

When Fonseca has been under the height of pressure and Milan have needed a result with their backs against the wall they have so far delivered, and we expect that trend to continue against a team also struggling for confidence. This will lure us into a false sense of hope, naturally, before a heavy defeat in Madrid.

Monza 0-2 Milan