Sunday Premier League Tips: Records, Motivation and Goals on Final Day! | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back for his final best Premier League bets on Sunday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is back to recommend his best bets for the final day in the Premier League on Sunday...

Liverpool v Crystal Palace (16:00)

Mohamed Salah needs just one goal to equal the record for most goal contributions in the Premier League. Alan Shearer (1994/95) and Andrew Cole (1993/94) both hold the record with 34 goals and 13 assists (47) but they were in 42 game seasons so with just one goal or assist, Salah (28 goals and 18 assists - 46) will be the record holder having achieved it in a 38 game season.

Speaking after winning the Premier League title having scored in the 5-1 win over Tottenham, Salah said "Hopefully I'm going to break [the goal involvements record] soon. It's something pushing me forward to just keep going and keep working hard." However, it's just one goal in his last eight game games! But it's not for want of trying.

In that period he's had 21 shots at an average of 2.63 per-game, racking up an expected goals total of 4.67. Looking at his Premier League career for Liverpool, he's scored 183 goals from an xG total of 184.54, so whilst his finishing might be wayward at times, I think we can accept he'll always be there or thereabouts in terms of what he's expected to score.

I think both Salah and his team-mates will be keen on ending the season on a high at Anfield ahead of lifting the Premier League trophy and they're possibly coming up a great opponent in a Crystal Palace 5/1 side having lifted the FA Cup last Saturday.

Not only did that mean having to play midweek against Wolves where they conceded twice but like Liverpool 4/11, they've probably been celebrating a lot! Since Liverpool won the league they've conceded three at Chelsea, two v Arsenal and three at Brighton.  On top of that, Crystal Palace have played three of the top four away from home in the least month and shipped 12 goals in that time.

Man Utd v Aston Villa & Newcastle v Everton (16:00)

Going into the final day of the season, there's just three points separating third to seventh, with only the top five guaranteed Champions League football next season. Third place Man City only need a point away at Fulham, where as the other four sides all need a win to try and be sure of a top five finish, and two of them face each other as Nottingham Forest host Chelsea! So I won't be trying to second guess that game but I'm happy to back Aston Villa 8/11 and Newcastle 1/3 both to win given their motivation, against sides with nothing to play for.

Aston Villa travel to a Man Utd side who four days previous had to play the biggest game of their season in the Europa League final against Tottenham. And lost. Utd have already lost 18 games this season - only five teams have lost more - and at Old Trafford they've suffered nine defeats with only four sides having lost more on home turf.

Villa come into this as the form side in the league since the beginning of March, having won eight of their last nine games, scoring 18 and conceding just four. Utd on the other hand have lost five of their last six league games with all eggs having firmly been in the Europa League basket.

In the same timeframe, Newcastle have picked up the second most points having won seven of ten games, scoring 22 goals in the process - the most in the league. Since David Moyes has returned to Everton, his record against the top six reads P6 W0 D2 L4 and against all opponents Everton have won just three of their last 12 games.

All 10 Premier League Matches (16:00)

What better way to end the season than a fun and potential huge win to finish on the final day! This is one of my favourite bets to do, particularly in a goal heavy league like the Premier League, where we've had lots of success this season backing goals. Since the new rule came in at the beginning of last season where injury time was increased, the Premier League is averaging 3.12 goals per-game. Looking back at previous seasons before, we can see a clear increase:

So I like to back every game to finish Over 2.5 goals. When we get to this time of the season, defenders are on the beach and attackers play without the handbrake and goals tend to flow. Last season eight of the 10 fixtures on the final day had three or more goals with the other two narrowly missing out on two goals each. I've already played this bet in other goal heavy leagues across Europe and came narrowly close to the big win!

Let's try and end the season in style with a 40/1 shot.

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