Weekend FA Cup Tips: Back the Bees to buzz with Shots for 10/1 and 14/1 accas | OneFootball

English FA Cup

Barnet manager Dean Brennan takes his Bees to Exeter this weekend in the FA Cup

Our EFL expert Alan Dudman runs the rule over the Saturday and Sunday FA Cup first round ties and picks out a pair of trebles for the weekend...

Listen to this week's Football...Only Bettor Podcast!

🔗 Spotify

Saturday FA Cup treble

Leg 1: Reading v Fleetwood Town, Saturday 15:00: Back Reading and Over 2.5 Goals

A couple of Opta stats weigh firmly in favour of Reading and goals for Saturday's FA Cup as the Royals have won their last four first round matches, scoring at least three times in three of those four wins and they have also won eight of their last 12 home matches in the FA Cup (D2 L2), including each of their last two in a row.

Seven of their last eight too have banked for Over 2.5 Goals patrons and that's got to be ripe material for a play on the hosts to win. And while the 8/13 in the Match Odds 90 mins market is short, adding the goals on the Sportsbook makes the bet 13/8 to boost our treble.

Reading too are holding six wins at home in League One with 14 scored and just four conceded, and while it's never easy trying to predict how the Cup rates for a club in terms of a seasonal aim, Reading could do with the cash for a cup run and some televised matches and an early exit would not go down well.

KEY OPTA STAT: Fleetwood Town have progressed from six of their last eight FA Cup first round ties, although all eight times they have progressed from this stage as an EFL club have come against non-league sides.

Leg 2: Bradford City v Aldershot, Saturday 15:00: Back Aldershot +2 @ 4/9

Back in the 1990s when I was trying to balance a busy social life with playing football, I signed for Wembley from Edgware Town via a fax machine (a tale I often trot out) with myself and Aaron Kirwan (a fine left-back) signing on the dotted line only to be told Wembley had Aldershot in their next fixture.

A sense of panic came over me as one of my old teammates had played the Shots and said it was like playing at Old Trafford with the noise. Luckily I got nowhere near the first team so I was alright, but Aldershot always had a bit of cache around them even back them.

Obviously Saturday is a tough game against Bradford but there might be some mileage here in going with the shock, and with that in mind the +2 on the Handicap really appeals for the National League side.

Granted, their form has been poor of late and 17th in the fifth tier highlights their struggles, but they have a goal in them and experienced midfielder James Henry (who played many a game for Millwall) has six in 16 this term.

Aldershot are winless in six games against Bradford in all competitions (D4 L2), last beating the Bantams back in March 2012 in League Two, but the four draws in that stat makes the bet a touch more viable.

KEY OPTA STAT: Aldershot are looking to reach the second round of the FA Cup in consecutive seasons as a non-league club for the first time since doing so in four seasons in a row between 2003-04 and 2006-07.

Leg 3: Exeter City v Barnet, Saturday 15:00: Back Barnet @ 5/2

Another trip down memory lane as I covered both of these teams for Clubcall in the 1990s and often would use the headlines on teletext "Grecians earn point" or "Beez buzzing", and the creative juices have stuck doggedly with the duo many years later.

Barnet are certainly a force in the National League at home with a brilliant record of eight victories, but Dean Brennan's side have been loose on the road and have conceded plenty.

Nicke Kabamba has been buzzing (sorry) of late and he's been a real goal machine with seven in nine, and this side create chances. They went down to a 2-1 defeat at the weekend but had enough chances to put the game out of sight. Indeed, full marks for Brennan, often very passionate for using the word "poxy" in a post-match interview.

He said after the Rochdale loss: "Up until that goal, we were caused not a lot of problems. We can't keep giving away stupid goals like that. It was an absolutely poxy goal to give away. It's horrendous."

Exeter City have been eliminated from the FA Cup first round of 48 separate occasions as a Football League club - only Rochdale (50) have suffered more such eliminations, and Barnet are dangerous outsiders here.

KEY OPTA STAT: Barnet are looking to reach the FA Cup second round in three consecutive seasons for the first time since doing so in four in a row between 1969-70 and 1972-73.

Sunday FA Cup treble

Leg 1: MK Dons v AFC Wimbledon, Sunday 12:30: Back The Draw @ 9/4

The Dons-lite version will be out for revenge after a drubbing earlier in the season at Plough Lane, but things have changed in Buckinghamshire since Scott Lindsay took over from Mike Williamson and they have been far more aggressive in their play and press since.

Indeed, it was very much evident on Saturday with a fine second-half comeback against Grimsby to run out 1-3 winners and another influential performance from Scott Hogan who turned the game on its head and scored his second goal in four appearances since signing.

It was the first time that MK Dons had recorded three successive wins since last December, so Lindsay must be credited with the turnaround.

AFC Wimbledon have progressed from seven of their last eight FA Cup first round ties, going out in the other against Doncaster in 2019-20 and I don't think there's much to split them for this, as Johnnie Jackson's team are so good at home with an impeccable five wins and 15 scored.

I envisage both scoring and Hogan for an Anytime Scorer bet at 23/10 is also worth considering.

KEY OPTA STAT: MK Dons have been eliminated in four of their last six FA Cup first round ties, more than they had in their first 13 in the competition (three).

Leg 2: Boreham Wood v Leyton Orient, Sunday 14:00: Back Boreham Wood +1 @ 5/2

On the face of it this should be fairly straightforward for a team in League One facing a National League South team, but in no way are Orient bankers for Saturday at 1/4 and I do not like that price at all.

Richie Wellens has come out on several occasions firing this season after several below-par performances, and the O's have only won once since mid-September.

Orient have also lost their last eight away matches in the FA Cup proper, mustering just a single goal in this run while shipping 20 goals. Their last away win was in December 2012 at non-league Alfreton Town, and thtat stat from Opta is a massive cause for concern.

Boreham Wood have only lost one of their last seven home FA Cup matches against sides from the top four tiers of English football (W2 D4), with their one defeat coming against Millwall in January 2021.

The Herts club don't mind a cup run either and famously charged into the fifth round in recent seasons before going out to Everton and we can back them here on the +1 on the Sportsbook at 5/2 as Orient do not score many on the road.

KEY OPTA STAT: This is the first meeting between Boreham Wood and Leyton Orient in the FA Cup proper (first round onwards).

Since the start of the 2022-23 season, only Grimsby Town (23) have scored more FA Cup goals than Wrexham (22) among sides playing outside the top-two English divisions in that time and you have to think with the club's connections and the coverage on TV that a Cup run will once again be high on the agenda.

They had one last year before a heavy defeat against Blackburn in January, but progression is needed for the Hollywood heroes. Last year they beat Yeovil, Shrewsbury and Mansfield en route.

Wrexham have also won six of their last nine matches in the FA Cup (D1 L2), as many as they'd won in their previous 18 games in the competition proper (W6 D5 L7).

I don't think the price is a bad one at 1/2, especially given Orient are even shorter.

Recommended bets

You can back Alan's Saturday FA Cup treble @ 10/1 0.5pt

You can back Sunday's FA Cup treble @ 16/1 0.5pt