Chelsea’s big game record the only thing standing between them and a title challenge | OneFootball

Manchester City have dominated the Premier League for such a long period now that you didn’t even need to check the title odds before this season started. We all knew Pep Guardiola’s team would be heavy favourites, and that wasn’t going to change quickly, even after a slow start.

But we’re now 25% of the way through the season, and the table doesn’t lie. Man City are second, but they’re a full 5 points behind Liverpool, who have leapfrogged Arsenal and now look like the most consistent and stable team with the best chance of challenging Pep’s team.

Chelsea have made a stronger start than most expected – they’re on 19 points, level with Arsenal (and, to be fair, Nottingham Forest and Brighton).

That has of course changed the odds – slowly at first, then rapidly. Whether you go to a high street bookies or a trusted new bookmakers, you’ll see the same thing on the Premier League title winners page: Chelsea way out at 14/1, with Liverpool now leading the way at 5/4 ahead of Man City and Arsenal.

For the first time all season, things are tipping towards the Reds, away from the Sky Blues. But where does that leave Chelsea? We’re ahead of schedule, we’ve confounded preseason predictions and we’re in the top 4 in time for the festive fixtures. But this moment feels like a real hinging point. It’s the calm before the storm, with players on their final international break of the year, ready to return for the busiest stretch of the season.

Do Enzo Maresca’s team build on their unexpectedly strong start, beat up their top 4 rivals in the games to come (matches against Tottenham and Aston Villa are on the horizon), and really start to look like they could be in a title race? Or do they start to show weakness and watch Liverpool and the other true contenders steam into the distance?

One thing is for sure – you can’t win a title without beating any top teams, and so far Maresca’s side have failed to do that, despite some really impressive performances in other ways. They lost to Man City and Liverpool, and drew with Arsenal and Man U. It’s been discussed endlessly, but it remains true – you need to be consistent against the weaker sides to win the title, but you can’t just surrender those 6 pointers against your competition at the top.

It will be very interesting to compared that record against the second round against those 4 teams. Maresca says he’s convinced that his team are “close” to winning those tight games against the top teams, and if we can do that in the reverse fixtures in the New Year this season truly will have gone from “better than expected” to something much more impressive.

At the very least, those 14/1 odds will start to look very harsh, very fast if we win some statement games in the next few weeks. Overtaking Arsenal to become 3rd favourites for the league would be an achievement in itself, and that could happen by Boxing Day if all goes well.