Newcastle v Brighton FA Cup Tips: Back Brighton to avoid defeat in normal time at 4/5 | OneFootball

English FA Cup

Stinch is back to preview Newcastle v Brighton in the FA Cup

Football tipster and odds compiler Mark Stinchcombe is back to preview Newcastle v Brighton in the FA Cup fifth round on Sunday afternoon...

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Newcastle v BrightonSunday March 2, 13:45Live on ITV1

No Newcastle talisman

Newcastle were dealt a blow before their match with Liverpool on Wednesday with news that top scorer Alexander Isak would miss the match with a groin injury. They then proceeded to manage just three shots in a very tame 2-0 defeat having fallen behind after just 11 minutes.

After the game Newcastle manager Eddie Howe relayed fears it wasn't something long-term "It was a late decision, he just didn't feel right with his groin. He didn't want to take the risk and we have big games coming up. We certainly hope he will be back for the final, we don't envisage it as a big thing." However, with the final in just two weeks time, it means it's unlikely he will be risked here and as a result Newcastle look too short at 2.2.

Isak will be a huge miss for the Magpies here, not only with his goals but as a focal point in attack. He's scored 21 goals in 29 games this season meaning Newcastle will be missing 37.5% of their goals having totalled 56 goals against Premier League opposition across all competitions. It's a huge chunk when you consider their next top scorer is Anthony Gordon with only nine goals who cut an isolated figure at Anfield.

Brighton quietly going about their business

Brighton are quietly having a very good season under new boss in 32 year-old Fabian Hürzeler. They sit eighth, just three points off fifth and the likely final Champions League spot, just a point behind Newcastle, having lost the third fewest games in the league (six). And despite that 7-0 trouncing at Nottingham Forest at the beginning of February, they bounced back to win their next four games meaning they've won seven of their last nine across all competitions, scoring 20 goals in the process.

Based on expected points this season, these two sides rank neck and neck meaning we would be expecting odds of around 2.4 on Newcastle, yet they are shorter and missing their top goal scorer. You've got to think the club and the players have got one eye on that cup final and their bid to end 70 years without a trophy.

With Brighton unbeaten in 25 of their 32 games across all competitions this season (78%), it makes perfect sense to back the Seagulls to avoid defeat at St. James' Park (inside regulation time). After all, they've already won 1-0 there this season back in October and Newcastle have actually lost four of their last eight games.

Column P/L 2024/25

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