All about the next game: Leverkusen away

Rund um den Brustring

·1 November 2024

All about the next game: Leverkusen away

This year, VfB is traveling to Leverkusen’s BayArena for the fourth time. Can VfB secure their first win there this year, or will Leverkusen strike back at the last minute once again?

When Deniz Undav said after last year’s home game against the Werkself that we had just seen the two best German teams play, many people—especially Bayern fans—laughed. By the 34th matchday, however, many had to admit: Stuttgart and Leverkusen really were the best teams, as our VfB ultimately overtook Bayern for second place while Leverkusen went unbeaten to claim the championship. The rise of the two teams happened in parallel in a way. In the 22/23 season, Xabi Alonso took over Bayer 04 Leverkusen while they were in 17th place, led them to the Europa League that same season, and surprisingly took them to the championship the next. In the same season, Sebastian Hoeneß took over VfB Stuttgart. Also at risk of relegation, he first led them to the relegation playoffs and then, a year later, into the Champions League. Both coaches achieved record-breaking seasons: neither Leverkusen nor Stuttgart had ever had a better season in terms of points. They share a similar tactical style, too—a modern possession-based game inspired by Roberto De Zerbi’s tactics at Brighton & Hove Albion. This style doesn’t just counterpress, as practiced by almost every professional team in Germany; it practically nullifies it and turns it back on itself. The tactical differences between these two talented coaches are subtle, in areas like formations, buildup play, etc.

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However, while Leverkusen’s season ended with a double and a lost Europa League final, VfB’s record season didn’t result in a title. Leverkusen was always in the way. In the league? Second behind Leverkusen. In the cup? Knocked out by Leverkusen. In the Super Cup? Lost to Leverkusen. I don’t think I’m exaggerating when I say that Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart was more of a German classic than Bayern vs. Dortmund last season. And this season? Neither team has quite managed to replicate last year’s form. Leverkusen is third, but they’re not the powerhouse they were last year, and VfB, in eighth place, is still finding its footing after a summer squad overhaul. Nevertheless, we can hope for an exciting match in which VfB might finally defeat their nemesis and secure three points.

Personnel situation

There are no changes from the cup game in Lautern. Jeff Chabot is absent this time not due to injury but because of a yellow-red card suspension. Keitel is still dealing with adductor issues, and Diehl and Stergiou remain sidelined due to injuries.

Possible Starting line-up

I think the best XI will start. I think El Bilal will start over Demirovic, though that’s not to downplay Demirovic’s quality. Against Leverkusen, El Bilal’s pace will be more critical than Demirovic’s physicality. Still, Demirovic will surely come off the bench. In defense, I expect Chase to replace the suspended Chabot. We might also see Hendriks, who did a good job against Lautern.

Statistics

In 86 Bundesliga games against Leverkusen, VfB Stuttgart has won only 23 times and managed to draw as many times. The remaining 40 games were all won by the Werkself. The away statistics are even more one-sided. VfB has won only 7 out of 48 away games in Leverkusen, with a win rate of 16.2%, their third-lowest in an away fixture. Only in Leipzig, against Bayern Munich, and in Heidenheim have they won less often in the Bundesliga. As mentioned, VfB and the Werkself play a similar style of football. This is evident in the stats, where VfB and Leverkusen have nearly identical figures in most categories, such as average possession. VfB ranks third with 57% possession, while Leverkusen is fourth with 55%. Leverkusen has scored the second-most goals, with VfB third. Even in weaker stats, the two teams resemble each other; for example, VfB wins the second-fewest aerial duels, and Leverkusen is 15th in that category. The only area where the teams differ significantly is running stats: Leverkusen regularly ranks in the top 5, while VfB tends to be among the least active running teams.

Conclusion

For the fourth time this year, we’re playing in Leverkusen, and it’s no easier to get points here. Bayer 04 Leverkusen may not be the force they were last year, but neither is VfB. I fear that Chabot’s absence could be the deciding factor, and we might end up going home empty-handed with a 0–2 loss.