FA Cup Quarter Finals Tips: Back three ties to go to penalties at 194/1 | OneFootball

English FA Cup

It's FA Cup quarter final weekend and Lewis has two big bets

In his latest Notebook, Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - explains why backing the draw in the FA Cup quarter finals this weekend could lead to hefty returns...

Betfair Saturday Football Superboost

The FA Cup quarter-finals begin with a London derby at Craven Cottage where Fulham host Crystal Palace and it's a visiting player who takes centre stage in the Betfair Saturday Football Superboost.

Jean-Philippe Mateta has registered 12 shots on target in his last 10 games and Betfair have boosted the price on him having one or more here from 1/2 to 1/1.

Always back the draw in quarter finals

Backing the draw in quarter-finals of cup competitions is always a betting strategy worth implementing when the time is right. Esteemed Betfair punting guru Mark O'Haire taught me this, using evidence and examples from major tournaments as a source of inspiration.

A significant 44% of all European Championship quarter-finals have ended as draws from a 32-game sample size with three of the four 2024 last-eight showdowns ending in stalemate. When jeopardy increases, the prospect of games becoming cagey with both teams setting out in a must-not-lose focus rather than taking risks to win the game does tend to play out.

This year's FA Cup has heightened jeopardy and excitement, due to the way the competition has opened up. There is a genuine chance for Bournemouth, Crystal Palace or Fulham to win a major trophy and the scenes at Wembley for Newcastle's Carabao Cup triumph will have only enhanced those burning desires.

All this evidence suggests some potential cagey quarter-final games could play out this weekend with the three all-Premier League ties - Fulham v Crystal Palace, Brighton v Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth v Manchester City - offering big value to end as draws after 90 minutes.

We saw this play out in spectacular fashion in the fifth round when all four matches between Premier League teams ended as 1-1 draws.

It makes sense that the games went this way based on how condensed the Premier League is this season - there isn't much between many of the teams. To put some weight behind that condensed nature argument, I analysed all the matches that have been played between teams sitting from fourth to 10th in the table.

So that's 31 Premier League games and on 21 occasions the games ended as a draw or were settled by a one goal margin. That's a 68% strike rate which helps convince me that this weekend's FA Cup ties, where the jeopardy is an added factor, will follow suit. They should be close fought, with fine margins at play, meaning the draws are huge runners.

The treble pays 41/1.

Play the penalties: Back 194/1 treble

This is the first edition of the FA Cup with no replays from the first round onwards which has mirrored the regulations since the 2019-20 season when replays were scrapped from the fifth round onwards.

This means if games are drawn then extra-time and penalties are on the menu.

Those of a greedy nature when it comes to prices can fill their boots in this regard as Betfair do offer up markets on the method of victory where either team to win on penalties is available to back.

And with the draw outcome alive and kicking in all three all-Premier League ties this weekend, punters are advised to take advantage of trying to shoot the lights out by combining each of Fulham v Crystal Palace, Brighton v Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth v Manchester City to be settled by a penalty shootout at 194/1.

Of course, you could also play that bet as a Trixie using the multiple bets function meaning you only need one to land to secure yourself a better than break-even return.

Back the three all-PL FA Cup quarter finals to end as draws @ 41/1

Back the three all-PL FA Cup quarter finals to go to penalties @ 194/1