Nations League Preview: Germany vs Italy – Team News, Line-ups & Prediction | OneFootball

Signal Iduna Parks forms the backdrop for the return leg of a heavyweight UEFA Nations League quarter-final tie between Germany and Italy. The visitors have a mountain to climb in Dortmund after a 2-1 first-leg loss at the San Siro on Thursday.

Despite taking an early lead through Newcastle United midfielder Sandro Tonali, Italy slipped to a dismal loss on home soil, courtesy of Tim Kleindienst and Leon Goretzka’s second-half goals. However, Luciano Spalletti’s side showed their capacity to cope with Die Mannschaft last week.

Indeed, Italy (1.18) generated a superior xG to Germany’s 1.11 and had more overall shots (13) and attempts on target (6) than their opposition. Therefore, the two-time third-place Nations League finishers should take this trip without fear, even though they face long odds to set up a semi-final tie against Denmark or Portugal.

Better positioned to reach the tournament’s finals for the first time, Germany can take confidence from their sterling record under ex-Bayern Munich boss Julian Nagelsmann. Except for a controversial loss to Spain in the Euro 2024 quarter-finals, they’ve run riot since the start of 2024, going unbeaten in all 15 remaining games (W11, D4).

Furthermore, Nagelsmann became the first Die Mannschaft manager since the legendary Franz Beckenbauer to win on Italian soil, inspiring Germany to their first away win against Gli Azzurri since 1986. As such, optimism should be sky-high around the home camp.

Match Preview

Germany

Germany’s all-time record in the Nations League looks bleak. Indeed, they’ve failed to reach the finals in all three previous cycles. However, Nagelsmann looks on course to flip that script after rebuilding confidence within his squad on the back of three consecutive home victories by an aggregate score of 13-0.

Avoiding defeat at Dortmund’s iconic home venue would propel the Germans into the next season, and they look perfectly positioned to achieve that. Thursday’s come-from-behind triumph in Milan extended their unbeaten run against Italy to seven matches across all competitions (W4, D3).

Fans in attendance should be in for a treat, considering none of Germany’s last 22 home matches in the Nations League have ended 0-0. Nagelsmann’s charges will likely hold up their end of the bargain after beating Bosnia & Herzegovina and Hungary 7-0 and 5-0, respectively, in two of their three post-Euro 2024 home outings.

Italy

Beating Germany for the first time since the Euro 2012 semi-finals is by no means a straightforward proposition, not least because the Italians head into proceedings on a two-game losing run. Adding to an ever-growing skepticism among the traveling fans, Spalletti’s lads have only won two of their last five internationals (D1, L2).

Spalletti conceded in his post-match conference that defending set-pieces has been Italy’s Achilles heel, with Goretzka’s winner coming from a corner. The ex-Napoli boss may also consider moving Inter star Alessandro Bastoni back to the left-hand side after he flopped as a central defender in the first leg.

On the other hand, the visitors have excelled in the final third. Giacomo Raspadori and Moise Kean fluffed their lines in the first leg, wasting two glorious chances. However, the Italians have found the back of the net in 19 of their last 20 Nations League fixtures, suggesting they should be good for at least one goal.

Moreover, they’ve scored before halftime in each of the last ten.

Team News

With Kai Havertz, Benjamin Henrichs, Felix Nmecha, Marc-Andre ter Stegen, and Florian Wirtz all sidelined by injuries, Germany’s squad looks fragile. Yet, substitutes fared well in Milan on Thursday, with Oliver Baumann producing miracles in goal and Goretzka rolling back the years in midfield.

Meanwhile, Italy will take this trip without Serie A’s top scorer, Mateo Retegui, and star wingbacks Federico Dimarco and Andrea Cambiaso. Riccardo Calafiori joined the growing injury list after the first leg, perhaps paving the way for Alessandro Buongiorno’s return to the starting XI.

Germany vs Italy Potential Starting Line-ups

Germany (4-2-3-1): Baumann; Kimmich, Rudiger, Schlotterbeck, Mittelstadt; Goretzka, Gross; Sane, Musiala, Adeyemi; Kleindienst.

Italy (3-5-2): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Buongiorno; Bellanova, Barella, Ricci, Tonali, Udogie; Raspadori, Kean.

Germany vs Italy Prediction

An unlikely comeback isn’t beyond Italy, yet Germany’s renaissance under Nagelsmann puts them in the driver’s seat to reach the semi-finals. We wouldn’t rule out a turnaround but expect the Germans to get the job done on home turf.