Nottingham Forest v Liverpool: Key first goal angle opens up 50/1 opportunity | OneFootball

English Premier League

Liverpool boss Arne Slot is looking for revenge

Nottingham Forest look to continue their six-game winning run at home to leaders Liverpool and Dave Tindall has three bets for the City Ground showdown...

Nottingham Forest v Liverpool

Forest the Premier League's form team

Football table form guides tend to span six matches so if we look at any typical example of the genre, Nottingham Forest sit top. Their Last 6 figures: WWWWWW.

It's incredible for a side who finished just one place above relegated Luton last season and that burst of form which built on an already impressive start has seen Forest vault up to third place with the same number of points (40) as Arsenal.

Averaging two points per game is Champions League form so can Forest make it into Europe's elite competition? The market still has them as sixth favourites for a Top 4 finish but 3.7 on the exchange shows it's realistic.

And if they beat leaders Liverpool on Tuesday night, is the title in sight? Dare to dream and all that. Forest are 40.0 to pull off a Leicester-like fairytale for those who think their style of letting the opposition have the ball and hitting on the break is sustainable over a full season.

Reds still hot favourites for title despite wobbles

Liverpool haven't quite had it all their own way in the last month. Despite hammerings of Tottenham and West Ham in the league, they've drawn against Newcastle, Fulham and Manchester United and lost to Spurs in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final.

But after a blistering start to the campaign, Arne Slot's men are still in prime position. Six points clear at the top of the table and with a game in hand over their nearest rivals, Liverpool are just 1.34 for the title.

Their tally of 46 points has been been split equally home and away and they've played one fewer game on the road, winning seven and drawing two. They're also the top scorers on their travels having plundered 27 goals, seven more than at Anfield.

Slot was able to rest key players and give minutes to squad players in the 4-0 FA Cup win over Accrington Stanley on Saturday which would have helped although Forest did the same, making a full 11 changes but still beating Luton 2-0.

Slot seeking revenge

Liverpool's sensational start to the season was notable for just a single blip - a 1-0 home defeat by Forest at Anfield in September. It's a game which Slot has brought up numerous times in press conferences, the match clearly getting in his head and staying there.

Perhaps defeat to Tottenham last week will have removed some of the mystique around it but Slot will clearly be very, very determined to right the wrong of that Forest defeat, settled by a 72nd-minute winner from Callum Hudson-Odoi.

In the Match Odds market Liverpool are 7/10 to take revenge, with Nottingham Forest 15/4 and The Draw 3/1.

On first glance, Forest look value. They're on an amazing run and Liverpool have been shipping goals on the road. It may just take one again and Forest to win 1-0 is 14/1.

Nuno Espirito Santo's men have a methodology that is working week in, week out but winning seven straight Premier League games is extremely rare - even for the elite. Surely it has to end soon.

Forest's six game streak has come against Man Utd, Aston Villa, Brentford, Tottenham, Everton and Wolves - teams who currently sit 13th, 8th, 11th, 12th, 16th and 17th.

But before it began, they suffered defeats across November and December to three of the current top six: Newcastle (1-3 at home), Arsenal (3-0 away) and Man City (3-0 away). In other words, although they perhaps caught Liverpool cold back in September, are they good enough to beat the best teams now the style secret is out?

First goal the key

The way Forest play, scoring the first goal is sure to be key. If they get it, they can just sit back in their shape and challenge Liverpool to break down their low block, something most teams have struggled to do.

But if Liverpool grab it, things get tough for Forest. When they've fallen behind in those games against Newcastle (at 2-1), Arsenal and Man City, the gap has widened.

So if the Reds go in front and Forest chase, Liverpool can reverse roles.

That opens up the potential for goals and the bet I like is Cody Gakpo to score anytime at 11/5. The Dutchman has scored in each of his last three Premier League games and in 10 of his last 16 in all competitions. They are impressive numbers.

There's another way of playing the first goal angle.

Four of the last six games between this pair - all since 2022 - have resulted in a 1-0 scoreline.

If that goes Forest's way - and goalkeeper Matz Sels has a league-high nine clean sheets this season - it's pretty obvious who the most obvious scorer is.

The price for Chris Wood to score in a 1-0 Forest win is 50/1. It's worth a small play, surely.

Cagey start looks likely but Reds fancied

Whichever way it goes, a cautious opening looks likely.

And Liverpool haven't been the best starters this season despite their superb record.

That pattern continues to be the norm and Liverpool have been level at the break in three of their last four matches. Two of those were 0-0, the half-time scoreline against Forest at Anfield earlier this season.

But I do think Liverpool will get it done so the 7/2 for Draw/Liverpool in the Half Time/Full Time market makes appeal. Mo Salah's stats justify that bet on their own as he's scored 16 of his 18 Premier League goals this season in the second half.

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