Tuesday Premier League Tips: Back Liverpool to deliver a win in top of the table clash | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best Premier League bets on Tuesday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe returns with a look at three matches in the Premier League on Tuesday including a way to back Liverpool at odds-against...

West Ham v Fulham (Tuesday, 19:30)

Graham Potter takes charge of his first Premier League match for West Ham following the sacking of Julen Lopetegui. The Hammers parted company with the manager they only appointed in the summer having won just six of 20 league games, leaving the club 14th - just seven points above the relegation zone.

One of Lopetegui's failures was not improving a defence that had the worst record outside of the promoted teams last season, conceding a whopping 74 goals at an average of 1.95 per-game. This season West Ham have conceded 39 goals - the same average of 1.95 per-game. This should come as no surprise with them conceding the fourth most shots-per-game (16.6) and as a result the fourth most expected goals (41.98).

Given their leaky defence, over 2.5 goals bets have been regular winners, particularly at the London Stadium, with 80% of their matches seeing three or more goals. Further back, 13 of their last 18 home games have seen over 2.5 goals (72%).

With Marco Silva's men performing well - lost just four league games all season - the visitors are expected to contribute here. Ten of their last 16 games have seen three or more goals (63%) and Graham Potter's first game in charge already saw an over 2.5 winner with their 2-1 FA Cup defeat at Aston Villa.

Chelsea v Bournemouth (Tuesday, 19:30)

Seventh-placed Bournemouth go to Stamford Bridge just three points behind Chelsea who sit fourth in the table yet the Blues are just 1.64 to win here. It's looks a short price considering Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League games and actually rank third based on expected points with 37.67 - higher than Chelsea's 33.11.

Their excellent season has been built on their ability to get high number of shots away with them hitting the second most per-game with 16.7. They have actually underperformed with their actual points totalling 33 - four fewer than their expected - which would have them third in the league. This underperformance comes from their failure to take the high quality chances they are creating. They have created the fourth most expected goals with 42.42 but have only scored 30 goals - the biggest underachievement in the league. The main villains here come in the form of Antoine Semenyo, Marcus Tavernier, Evanilson and Dango Ouattara who have 14 goals between them from 26.36 expected goals. Evanilson being out injured may actually work in their favour here with Bournemouth putting five past West Brom in the FA Cup on Saturday without him.

This should be more competitive than the odds suggest and backing Bournemouth +1.0 on the Asian Handicap means Chelsea need to win by two or more goals for the bet to lose. This looks a great time to oppose them with Chelsea having failed to win any of their last four league games, including three against the bottom six.

Nottingham Forest v Liverpool (Tuesday, 20:00)

A huge game at the City Ground as 3rd place Nottingham Forest host league leaders Liverpool. Forest are having a fantastic season and are in great form having won their last six games in a row. Make no mistake this won't be easy for Liverpool and the odds certainly suggest that with the away side priced at 7/10 on the Betfair Sportsbook. It's no surprise Forest are rated as the leagues biggest overachievers this season having picked up only 31.24 expected points compared to the actual 40 - a difference of 8.76 points - meaning they are actually ranked ninth based on xPts. This overachievement is driven by having only conceded 19 goals compared to 24.71 expected goals.

Liverpool look best placed to potentially take advantage of this having created by far the most xG in the division with 49.10 - 5.83 more than anyone else. They've scored at least two goals in their last 12 league matches and that might be enough to win it here. The return of Diogo Jota and Federico Chiesa mean they now have six players available across the three striker positions and five substitutes might be the difference.

Liverpool have stumbled of late, particularly at the back where they have conceded 13 goals in their last 10 games across all competitions. However, crucially Ibrahima Konate is back fully fit and he's made a clear difference this season. Across all competitions, with Konate starting Liverpool have conceded 11 goals in 17 games (0.65 per-game) versus 15 goals in 13 games without him in the first XI (1.15 per-game).

Since Forest's return to the Premier League, matches between these two have been tight with four of the six meetings only separated by a single goal and backing Liverpool to win at an enhanced 11/10 with under 4.5 goals is a nice boost on the 7/10. 19 of Forest's 20 matches this season have finished under 4.5 goals (95%).

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