Saturday League 1 & 2 Tips: Expect a Yorkshire derby draw in 15/2 and 7/2 accas | OneFootball

EFL League One & League Two

Rotherham manager Steve Evans looks a man under pressure ahead of the Yorkshire derby

Alan Dudman's latest EFL tipsheet looks to the big derby between Rotherham and Barnsley this Saturday, while AFC Wimbledon and Bradford's defences feature for Under 2.5 bets...

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Back Matheus Cunha to have one or more shots on the target when Wolverhampton Wanderers travel to Bournemouth on Saturday at the super-boosted price of 1/1 from 1/2.

The Cherries are 12 places above Wolves in the Premier League but the Brazilian has been a big threat for the visitors all season, with 14 shots on target in his last six matches. With 30 this season, Cunha is in the top five players in the Premier League for shots on target and averages 1.5 every 90 minutes.

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League One

Leg 1: Bolton Wanderers v Leyton Orient, Saturday 15:00: Back BTTS 'Yes' @ 8/11

Bolton are improving under new manager Steven Schumacher while Orient have moved into sixth in the table on 53 points with a surge of results and are now only two off Huddersfield, four off Stockport and five off Wrexham.

The O's produced one of their best results on the road on Tuesday with a 1-2 win at Wrexham and they are almost unstoppable right now.

Goals are flowing, and the scoring record reads 2,3,3,0,6 and 2 of late and their young guns came up trumps in Wales with Charlie Kelman and Jamie Donley both on the scoresheet.

I am tempted to play the O's for a win, but Bolton have tools up front themselves and their front-three is more than dangerous with Aaron Collins on 15 goals this season and the clinical John McAtee earned a brace recently in the 3-2 win against Shrewsbury.

Orient have scored 25 goals since and including Boxing Day and the BTTS 'Yes' at 8/11 is the play here.

Leg 2: Charlton Athletic v Exeter City, Saturday 15:00: Back Charlton @ 1/2

The Addicks are a short price and another London club chasing promotion, although they suffered their first defeat in seven at Birmingham last weekend - a performance that prompted manager Nathan Jones to come in for a bit of stick from the Blues faithful.

Jones said there was nothing in the game and criticised Brum for going long, but Birmingham were clever as they bypassed Charlton's excellent press and as Jones said, paid respect to the Robins.

In short, with Exeter in town, this is the sort of game Jones must win if he has any pretensions of breaking into the top five or top four.

Charlton's home record is excellent at W9 D5 L2 and only Wycombe and Birmingham have conceded less at home. With Exeter so poor on their travels with a whopping xA of 1.47, Charlton can justify their short price of 1/2.

Leg 3: Rotherham United v Barnsley, Saturday 15:00: Back The Draw @ 23/10

You wouldn't want to back either of the Yorkshire duo at the moment. Barnsley have lost five of their last six while Steve Evans looks to be under as much pressure as his counterpart Darrell Clarke with the Millers equally poor with three defeats in their last four.

A bad result for either could mean curtains as both are slipping away from any outside claims of a play-off spot.

Evans has no set formation and is making too many changes with his personnel and this looks a game with plenty of jeopardy.

I have never particularly rated Clarke and it's not a surprise the Barnsley fans have turned their ire to him and the board following a meek transfer window and they look well short of firepower up front.

With confidence in such short supply for both, it's a Yorkshire derby that both dare not lose, and with 15 draws in the league between them this term (Rotherham eight and Barnsley seven) the draw is an attractive play to boost the treble.

League Two

Leg 1: Bradford City v MK Dons, Saturday 15:00: Back Bradford @ 3/4

MK Dons have lost the plot. The appointment of Scott Lindsey initially looked good, but they are in a wretched run and have dropped down to 16th in the table.

With such a poor defensive record too with 28 conceded away, Bradford is not a good fixture for Lindsey.

The Bantams are churning out wins and clean sheets with great regularity and are showing great discipline in formation both in and out of possession. They have conceded just once in seven, and that was against the real Dons, AFC Wimbledon, who are now second, and it's a defence so miserly, it's hard see MK cracking them.

I saw Lindsey's side just before Christmas and they lack pace up front and play too much sideways. Bradford's home xA of 1.03 and just 10 conceded in 16 at Valley Parade makes them bankers for Saturday and the price of 3/4 in my eyes should be a little shorter. I would have them more as 4/7 chances.

Leg 2: Newport County v Cheltenham Town, Saturday 15:00: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/5

Newport have tightened up at the back recently with two Under 2.5 games and a creditable 0-0 recently against in-form Bradford.

Nelson Jardim's side couldn't find a way past the 10-men Bantams on Saturday and while the xG figures will be slightly skewed with 11 against 10, they did earn a clean sheets in their previous two games with 1-0 and 3-0 wins against Carlisle and Crewe.

It was no mean feat keeping Crewe out, but the Carlisle game saw Jardim's team create just one shot on target.

Cheltenham have scored just 15 away from Whaddon Road, and their away xG at 1.12 is the lowest of their metrics which is why the Under 2.5 Goals edges the Over one for favouritism here.

Leg 3: Colchester United v AFC Wimbledon, Saturday 15:00: Back Under 2.5 Goals

AFC Wimbledon's rise to second in League Two has been most impressive under Johnnie Jackson and they last tasted defeat in a game back in December.

Away from home they are proving a difficult side to break down - which was glaringly obvious from Tuesday's 0-0 draw at Fleetwood in a match of few chances. It was Wimbledon's 17th clean sheet of the season and they haven't conceded a goal since January 28th.

Jackson said on the Col U test: "It'll be a game we'll want to attack. We'll go there trying for the win. If we can get something at Colchester, then this becomes a really, really good point."

Few can rival their xA numbers both home and away at 1.10 and 0.97, and they certainly should be good for another low-scoring game with seven of their last eight all hitting Under 2.5 Goals.

Recommended bets

Back the League One treble in one click here 0.5pt @ 15/2

Back the League Two treble in one click here 0.5pt @ 7/2

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