Opta Predicts Champions League Final: Back Milan in 30/1 PSG v Inter Bet Builder | OneFootball

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The highlight of any domestic football season is upon us and if you're not excited about the Champions League final, then questions need to be asked.

Here, we're going to preview the game and use Opta's data and insights to pick out some of the best-value plays before suggesting a bet builder, so let's get going.

Inter represent value

We have ourselves a Champions League final between two heavyweights that have failed to get over the line on the continental stage in recent seasons.

It is 15 years since Diego Milito's brace gave Inter Milan - then coached by Jose Mourinho - a 2-0 victory over Bayern Munich at the Santiago Bernabeu in the Champions League final. That was their third European title and first since 1965, while it also completed a treble.

Paris Saint-Germain, meanwhile, reached their first - and previously up to now - only Champions League final in August 2020, when they were beaten 1-0 by Bayern behind closed doors in Lisbon at the end of a COVID-fragmented season.

PSG's Cup Winners' Cup title from the 1995/96 season remains their only major European honour, while it is also one of just the two major European finals won by French clubs in 15 attempts. Marseille remain the only team from France to have won a European Cup or Champions League final having done so in 1993, with six others having lost.

Indeed, PSG have currently played the fourth-most games (167) without ever winning the European Cup/Champions League since it began in 1955, behind Arsenal (211), Dynamo Kyiv (185) and Atletico Madrid (176).

While historically the picture isn't great for PSG, they do have a boss who is looking to become only the sixth coach to win the competition with two different clubs.

Luis Enrique won the Champions League as part of an historic treble with Barcelona in 2015. Should the French side beat Inter on Saturday, he will join Carlo Ancelotti, Ottmar Hitzfeld, Jupp Heynckes, Mourinho and Pep Guardiola in the exclusive club.

Conversely, after seeing his team lose to Manchester City in 2023, Inter head coach Simone Inzaghi will be keen to avoid becoming the ninth man to lead their team to two defeats in the Champions League final. Fabio Capello and Thomas Tuchel are the only two head coaches to lose their first final but win their second, with both having done so in consecutive years.

History aside though, Inter have shown impressive versatility in this season's competition. During the league stage, the Nerazzurri were obdurate in finishing fourth - level on points with second-placed Barcelona and third-placed Arsenal, and two behind leaders Liverpool.

Inter conceded just one goal in their eight matches, winning six and drawing one. But while the clean sheets have dried up from the knockout stage onwards, they have been more than happy to give as good as they get in some slugfests on their way to the final.

Their 7-6 aggregate victory over Barcelona in the semi-final equalled the record for the most goals in a Champions League knockout tie and followed a 4-3 victory over Bayern.

But what has been consistent during their European campaign is Inter being difficult to beat.

Inter have been behind for just 1.2% of their matches in this season's Champions League. They have fallen behind in three of their 14 matches, but have never trailed for more than 370 seconds in any of them.

Inter's only defeat came away to Bayer Leverkusen in the league stage, following Nordi Mukiele's stoppage-time winner, in a game in which they trailed for just 285 seconds. Against Barca, they were behind for only 343 seconds, while there were 370 seconds between Harry Kane's 52nd-minute opener and Lautaro Martinez's equaliser in the quarter-final second leg.

Inter have also spent the highest percentage of any team time winning (50.8%) and, priced at 12/5 to win in 90 minutes, the value play is in getting behind them again - just as we did in tipping them as an outright winner at 25/1 in our pre-tournament antepost picks.

It is important to say that the Opta supercomputer gives Inter a 29% chance of a normal-time victory, which is more or less in line with their sportsbook price. PSG, meanwhile, are understandable favourites at 5/4 - again, broadly in line with the supercomputer's 44.6% likelihood - in the win/draw/win market and 6/10 to lift the trophy. Simply put, though, there isn't enough value in either of those prices in what will likely be a tight final.

Sommer could be the difference

While much of the focus pre-game will rightly fall on favourites PSG, who have scored 33 goals in the competition, there is an opportunity to get against them.

For all the praise the French side's attacking fluidity has received - they have scored three or more goals on six occasions, including a 7-0 victory at home to Brest in the play-off knockout - they have only outscored Inter by seven goals. The tournament's top scorers, meanwhile, are Barcelona with 43 goals.

While Inter have had to utilise their attacking artillery to get to this stage, their biggest strength is their ability to keep things tight. We have already mentioned that they went through the league stage having conceded just one goal, and covered how difficult they are to beat, and that has been in no small part down to goalkeeper Yann Sommer.

The Swiss stopper has registered a goals prevented figure of 4.9 in the competition this season, while he has saved 81.4% (48) of the 59 shots on target he has faced. Having conceded just 11 goals in the Champions League, Sommer has a goals conceded per game ratio of just 0.85, which is even more impressive when you consider that Inter rank fifth for shots on target conceded (63).

With four of the last five Champions League finals having finished 1-0 after 90 minutes, and none of the last seven having had a winning margin of more than two goals, it is not unreasonable to back Sommer to be the difference in Munich.

A correct score bet on Inter to win 1-0 is priced at 10/1, while BTTS: No is 11/10 and under 2.5 goals is 5/6.

Hard to imagine Dembele staying quiet

But it would be unrealistic to expect Sommer to have a quiet night when PSG have a player as dangerous as Ousmane Dembele.

The France international has scored 33 goals and laid on 13 assists in all competitions so far this season, including eight goals and four assists in the Champions League - the most goal contributions ever by a PSG player in a Champions League campaign.

Dembele also ranks first for shots (60) in the Champions League this season, having had at least 26 more than any other player in either team, and averages 4.29 attempts per game. He is worth getting behind versus Khvicha Kvaratskhelia in a Build Ups bet on shots, while he is also 4/7 to have four or more shots in the match.

Another player worth backing for shots is wing-back Achraf Hakimi, who ranks second among both squads, having taken 34 over the course of PSG's Champions League campaign. The Moroccan loves to get forward and is 10/11 to have two or more attempts on Saturday.

Joao Neves, meanwhile, ranks first in the Champions League for high-intensity pressures (827) and has made 57 tackles in the competition this season - only Gennaro Gattuso (64) and Javier Mascherano (70) have ever made more in a Champions League campaign.

The Portuguese has given away a tournament-leading 23 fouls, though, and is one worth looking at for a Build Ups bet for fouls conceded, with the shorter-priced Denzel Dumfries having given away four fewer. Neves is priced at 8/5 to concede two fouls or more on Saturday, while a yellow card for him is 16/5.

Now read all our Champions League previews and tips here