Man Utd Under Erik ten Hag: The Opta stats on the Dutchman's reign | OneFootball

It has finally happened. After a saga that has lasted for the best part of an entire year, Manchester United have sacked Erik ten Hag as manager.

A 2-1 defeat away to West Ham at the weekend left United 14th in the Premier League with 11 points from nine matches. They are also winless in the Europa League after three games in that competition.

So, with the club now on the hunt for a new manager, and betting suspended on Ruben Amorim getting the job, let's have a more in-depth look at Ten Hag's tenure and see whether they were right to get rid of him.

The case for Ten Hag

Ten Hag won two trophies

It makes sense to start this by putting forward the argument for Ten Hag. By one of the simplest measures for success, Ten Hag did perform well for United in that he won trophies during his time at the club. In terms of silverware, the Dutchman was United's second-most successful manager since the retirement of Sir Alex Ferguson.

Ten Hag led the club to both the 2022/23 EFL Cup and 2023/24 FA Cup, beating Newcastle United and Manchester City in respective finals. The first trophy during his tenure was also the club's first major title in six years.

Since Ferguson, only Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Jose Mourinho have managed United for more matches than Ten Hag. Solskjaer failed to win any trophies as manager, while Mourinho's three included the 2016 Community Shield in which they beat Leicester City.

What that suggests is that winning major trophies is far from easy given the huge competition among England's leading clubs and Ten Hag deserves credit for having done so.

Ten Hag suffered bad luck

There is also an argument to say that both Ten Hag and United have been unlucky in certain games, this season especially.

According to Opta's expected points model, they should be three places above where they are in the Premier League and have two more points.

The table is put together by simulating game outcomes based on individual shot xG within matches, so it should come as no surprise that United rank higher given their struggles in front of goal.

While Ten Hag's side have been missing chances at an alarming rate this season (more on that later), they have at least been creating them. Manchester United are the third-lowest scorers in the Premier League this season with eight goals after nine matches but rank sixth for shots taken (130).

Given their quality going forward - Bruno Fernandes, Rasmus Hojlund, Marcus Rashford, Joshua Zirkzee and Alejandro Garnacho have all hit double figures at least once in the last two seasons - there has to be an element of misfortune about all of them misfiring at once.

United's results under Ten Hag were not as bad as you might think

Finally, looking at another basic metric of success, Ten Hag did deliver good results to some extent.

During his 85 Premier League games in charge of Manchester United, they accrued 146 points. Put on a table since the start of the 2022-23 season - when Ten Hag took over - that puts United fifth, ahead of the likes of Newcastle, Tottenham and Chelsea.

The 54-year-old took charge of 128 matches in all competitions while at the club, winning 70 of them to give him a win percentage of 54.7%. As a result, he leaves the club with the second-best win ratio of any manager since Sir Alex Ferguson retired, behind only Jose Mourinho.

The case against Ten Hag

Recent results

OK, so now let's get into the data that suggests that Manchester United were right to get rid of their manager. In contrast to the passage above, let's start with their performance this season.

Ten Hag has led the club to their worst start in history to a Premier League season, while it's their worst start overall since 1989-90. That season, United finished 13th in the First Division just five points above the relegation zone.

In the 34 seasons that have passed since then, United have only finished outside the top six of the English top flight twice - the most recent example of which came with an eighth-placed finish last term under Ten Hag, their lowest ever in the Premier League era.

So far this season, they are 14th in the table with 11 points from nine matches. That leaves United equidistant between the top four and the bottom three, seven points above third-bottom Ipswich and seven behind fourth-placed Aston Villa.

Given their recent struggles, the 300/1 about United to be relegated looks eminently more enticing than the 15/2 available for them to finish in the top four.

What makes United's performance this season worse is that they haven't even had an especially tough start to the season.

Using Opta's fixture difficulty rating model for the first nine games of the season, they have had the eighth-easiest start to the season with an average opponent rating of 87.2 as opposed to Wolves - who have had the toughest start - with an average of 90.7.

Red Devils were lacklustre in attack under Ten Hag

This is a big one. While there has been an undoubted element of bad luck with United's attacking woes that Ten Hag cannot take all of the blame for, he doesn't get off scot-free.

As mentioned earlier in this piece, United are regularly creating opportunities but can't seem to finish them.

They have generated an xG of 14.78 in the league so far, which is the sixth-highest, yet they are the biggest xG underperformers in the division with an xG-to-goals scored differential of -6.78 - at least 1.49 more than any other team.

Bruno Fernandes, meanwhile, has taken 28 shots without scoring a league goal this season, which is more than any other player in Europe's top five divisions.

The way in which United have turned to mush in front of goal suggests a lack of confidence, which checks out when you look at their form. That Ten Hag has been unable to rouse such a talented group of players is a mark against his managerial ability.

Dutchman's Man Utd defence struggled

As well as having issues going forward, and generally lacking a clear identity and style in their attacking play, Ten Hag's United have had big problems at the other end of the pitch as well.

During his time in charge, United were far too easy to play through and faced 1,253 shots in the league with only four teams - Brentford, Wolves, Bournemouth and West Ham - facing more. In all competitions, meanwhile, they faced 1,739 shots in 128 matches. For context, Manchester City have faced 717 fewer shots than United since 2022-23, despite playing six extra games in that time.

While they only conceded 112 league goals under Ten Hag, an xGA of 136 in that time - the fifth-worst of any ever-present team in the Premier League during his tenure - suggests that they were extremely fortunate not to ship more.

Given their level of performance at the back, there are valid concerns about the mentality of his team. They are exacerbated by learning that seven of Ten Hag's 27 Premier League defeats came after conceding in stoppage time, meaning that he has the highest percentage

of stoppage-time defeats in Premier League history of any manager to have lost at least 20 matches.

United didn't challenge the big boys under Ten Hag

Manchester United have had good moments under Ten Hag, but they never realistically looked like challenging the natural order among the best teams.

His record against the Big Six was illustrative of that, leaving the club having won just six of the 22 matches against them. He was also on the end of some embarrassing results, including a 7-0 defeat to Liverpool in March 2023.

Even in finishing third in the Premier League in 2022-23, his best season in charge, they were never title contenders and ultimately finished 14 points back on Manchester City.

But this season, the gap between themselves and the top clubs looks to be wider than ever.

According to the Opta supercomputer, Ten Hag leaves United with their likeliest finishing position being ninth. They are given a 12.2% chance of finishing exactly there.

They are given just a 1.8% chance of finishing in the top four and even a top-six spot has only a 13.5% likelihood. But with a price of 13/8 to do so giving an implied probability of 38.1%, a lay seems like a sensible decision here.

Given their measly supercomputer rating, meanwhile, it is no surprise that they are just 1/2 to end the season trophyless.

What's next for Manchester United under Ruben Amorim?

So, what hope do United have of salvaging something from this season? If reports are to be believed, the arrival of Sporting head coach Ruben Amorim could soon be happening at Old Trafford.

While he will likely take time to adjust to the Premier League, he arrives with an impressive reputation having won 120 of his 156 league games at his current club (77%), including all nine of Sporting's opening matches this season.

Having won 11 and drawn two of his opening 13 games at Sporting during the 2019-20 season, it would do him no harm to recreate that first impression in England, while he has also led Sporting to some impressive results in Europe, something United have been sorely lacking in recent years.

Amorim's current side have scored 349 league goals during his time in charge at an average of 2.2 per game compared to United's 1.44 per game under Ten Hag. They have also conceded 114 in the same timeframe at an average of 0.7 per match, while United conceded an average of 1.3 goals per league game under Ten Hag.

What Manchester United fans can realistically hope to see, though, are improvements at both ends of the pitch.