Wolves v Manchester City Premier League Tips: Back cards in a battle at both ends of the table | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back to preview Wolves v Manchester City on Super Sunday

Football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is here to preview Wolves v Manchester City in the Premier League on Super Sunday...

Wolves v Manchester City (Sun, 14:00)

Huge game on Sunday afternoon at both ends of the table as bottom side Wolves host 2nd place Manchester City. The pressure is massively ramping up on Gary O'Neil following his sides winless start to the season with six defeats out of seven. They went into the International break off the back of a 5-3 defeat at Brentford where they conceded four goals alone in the first half. This saw the departure of set-piece coach Jack Wilson having only joined the club in July, with two of the Brentford goals coming from their centre-backs. This means along with Southampton, Wolves have conceded the most goals from set-pieces this season with six - twice as many as the next side. As a result it might pay to look at someone like Josko Gvardiol to score, who has six goals in his last 19 games, though 6/1 is maybe not quite big enough. Ruben Dias in-comparison is 11/1.

One angle I like given the nature of the fixture is to back cards. The line is set at 3.5 but since the beginning of last season with the directive given to the officials to punish anything and everything, the general line in the Premier League has been 4.5. Indeed last season the average number of cards was 4.44 per-game and so far this season it's 5.30 per-game after 70 matches! Wolves matches so far have seen an average of 5.86 cards per-game with all seven seeing four or more cards and Man City's have had an average of 5.29 cards per-game with five of their seven breaching over 3.5.

Wolves again, like last season, are in the top three dirtiest sides with 22 cards so far at an average of 3.14 per-game. Last season only Chelsea collected more cards with the Molineux side picking up 104 cards at an average of 2.74 per-game. Last season Man City were by far the cleanest side however so far this season they've only been the eighth cleanest, collecting 17 cards at a rate of 2.43 per-game. Using both teams averages, we're looking at a card expectancy of over five, yet the market here has it much closer to just four.

The referee here is Chris Kavanagh who's shown a whopping 32 cards in just five games this season at an average of 6.40 per-game. He's already refereed Wolves this season and found six cards when they hosted Newcastle (three apiece) and last time he took charge of a Man City game away at Spurs in May, again produced six cards (three apiece).

Last season between these two sides, there were four cards produced in a routine 5-1 win for City at the Etihad, all to Wolves, and in this fixture where Wolves caused an upset winning 2-1, a massive nine were shown.

Wolves are capable of clearing this line by themselves, however they always cause City problems in transition - Rodri has been booked in five of nine against them - only against Arsenal has he been booked more in his career - and this is the man who is arguably the best defensive midfielder in the world. In his absence, Mateo Kovacic has already been booked in one of the two games. He's also been booked in both of his last two trips to Molineux for both Man City and Chelsea.

Given O'Neil's job is on the line, I can see Wolves really snapping into City - they are already committing the most fouls this season - and in-turn could see City retaliate and they game boil over. The likes of Grealish and Bernardo Silva can easily just talk themselves into the book and Ederson has already been carded three times this season! As a result, lets have a smaller bet on both sides collecting three or more cards at 13/2.

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 0ptsReturned: 0ptsP/L: 0pts

Remember, the Betfair Exchange 'Free Bet Streak' is live again this weekend. Place a £10 bet on any sport on Saturday, and you will unlock your first £10 free bet once it settles (win or lose). You will then unlock another £10 free bet each time you win for up to seven days.

I would defintely place my £10 bet on Sunday on Over 3.5 cards in this match and then when it wins place my free £10 bet on the Forest v Crystal Palace match on Monday!

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